Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (19/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5716, 5702, 5688, 5652, 5644, 5632 and 5616 while the resistances are at about 5718, 5726 and 5770. Four likely +WWs give about 5733, 5750, 5792 and 5825 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 5701, 5687, 5680, 5663 and 5632 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5744 unless killed below 5673.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900 while a falling channel seems to have broken out and can give 5815 unless nifty goes below 5650 again. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. Another smaller rising wedge can give 5687/5651 if it breaks down unless nifty remains above 5730.

Nifty closed above 5686 (posted as the first condition for an upmove) in the thread for Wednesday but it needs to close above higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. For example, it must go higher than 5752 and close +ve on Friday to give a weekly bullish engulfing candle. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR up at 1.07 and VIX down at 14.76. Pre-open high/low at 5985.25/5676.20 and close at 5703.30. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer or a topping tail and may indicate negative nifty after a slightly gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5704NF, TARGET 5674/54 SL 5734. The first 5tf candle is a hammer so trade carefully.

4.         First -ww target met.

5.         First target of 9.30 strategy met. Targets of first four -WWs also met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and continued to go down, staging a small recovery at the end as has been the case in the last few days. It finally closed -ve and also below yesterday's low as indicated by the pre-open data. In the process, targets of the first four -WWs of the first post were met as also the first target of 9.30 strategy. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (18/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5654/51, 5642, 5638, 5633, 5624 and 5572. Resistances are at about 5671, 5683, 5703 and 5719. Five likely +WWs give about 5669, 5692/96, 5744 and 5788 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5657, 5640, 5615 and 5574 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5685 unless killed below about 5647.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900.

Though nifty fut closed above 5656 on Wednesday, an important number as per one number theory, market still looks nervous. 5630 to 5730 remains a crucial zone. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800, though on immediate basis, a daily close above first 5686 and then 5730 is required to begin with. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 1.00 and VIX at 15.17. Pre-open high/low at 5675.30/5462.05 and close at 5675.30. This is the second lowest pre-open low in a month. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5668NF, TARGET 5642/28 SL 5698.

4.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, could not make a new low and then rose suddenly to make a new weekly high before closing +ve and also above yesterday's low as indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first three +WWs and first -WW of the first post were met. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. NS closed above important level of 5710 but it's just the first step towards confirmation of further upmove.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (17/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5638, 5634/32 and 5582. Resistances are at about 5701, 5708 and 5760. Three likely +WWs give about 5722, 5770 and 5792 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5628 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag can give 5580 unless killed above about 5685.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900 while a falling channel can give about 5815 unless nifty goes and remains below 5589. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900.

The daily candle has formed a bearish "outside bar' and this may imply continuation of the present downtrend. 5630 to 5735 remains a crucial zone and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. Market looks nervous and may not show clear direction till major corporate results are out. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 15.57. Pre-open high/low at 5709.20/5648 and close at 5681.10. The 10tf candle is like an inverted hammer and may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5669NF, TARGET 5643 SL 5699.

4.         Nifty opened gap up but then started sliding down, making a lower high and low than those yesterday. It recovered a bit late in the day but yet closed -ve, though above yesterday's close. The targets of 9.30 strategy and -ww of the first post were just missed.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (16/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5683, 5657/55, 5633 and 5596. Resistances are at about 5691, 5695, 5709, 5722 and 5746. Five likely +WWs give about 5703/12, 5737, 5742 and 5760 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5669 and 5615 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give higher target unless killed below about 5667. An imperfect IHnS can give 5757 and 5815 once nifty remains above 5720.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A falling wedge seems to have broken out and can give about 5815 unless nifty falls and remains below about 5600.

5630 to 5735 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. Market looks nervous and may not show clear direction till major corporate results are out. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.97 and VIX at 15.90. Pre-open high/low at 5714.75/5687.25 and close at 5705.60. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         Targets of first two +WWs as well as that of flag.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5747NF, TARGET 5767/82 SL 5717. However, chart data gives opposite trend, so be careful.

5.         If SL is hit, sell above 5704NF, target 5682, SL 5734.

6.         SL is hit.

7.         Target of first -ww met. Target of 9.30 strategy almost met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap but made a higher high and lower low than those yesterday and closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process, targets of the first two +WWs, first -ww and the flag of the first post were met. The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered and target of reverse trade was met. The daily candle is bearish engulfing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (15/10/12)

1.         The supports are closely spaced at about 5671, 5668, 5664, 5661, 5611 and 5558. Resistances are at about 5710, 5723, 5732 and 5772. A number of likely +WWs give about 5686/5706 (once above 5669), 5702 (once above 5684), 5729 (once above 5670), 5735 (once above 5632) and 5760 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5655 (once below 5732, not reached yet) and 5635 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty is near the bottom of a rising channel, which may give about 5000 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5930. A rising wedge can give about 5537 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5846. A falling wedge can give about 5815 unless nifty crosses and remains below about 5600.

The daily candle of nifty is a Doji and may imply temporary reversal to uptrend. The weekly candle does not give convincing confirmation of a weekly evening star. 5630-40 and 5725-35 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above 5788, a weekly close above 5747 and an intraday high above 5816. A daily close below 5630 may take it it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 16.49. Pre-open high/low at 5699.80/5663.15 and close at 5674.25. The 10tf candle is a Doji and may indicate a flat market marked with volatility, which is possible due to important event/results today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5678NF, TARGET 5644/24 SL 5708.

4.         SL hit, now buy below 5695NF target 5730 SL 5665.

5.         Targets of first +ww and first -ww met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, made a lower high & low than that yesterday but closed +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and -ww were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (12/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5703, 5656, 5646, 5624 and 5582. Resistances are at about 5711, 5720/23, 5728, 5772 and 5812. A likely +WW gives about 5757 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four small -WWs give about 5695 (once below 5715), 5668 (once below 5682), 5664 (once below 5676) and 5638 (once below 5666) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A mild +ve div has developed on daily chart.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and now threatens to give about 5000 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5871. Also, a rising wedge too seems to have broken down and can give about 5542 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5871. A falling wedges also seems to have broken out and can give about 5815 unless nifty crosses and remains below about 5615. A 74 high bullish flag promises higher levels unless killed below 5669.

Nifty gave a surprise on Thursday and rose sharply to close +ve. However, it neither opened above 5672 nor closed above 5709 as mentioned in the post for Thursday. The daily candle, therefore, still does not give confidence about continuation of uptrend. 5630-40 and 5725-35 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give clear indication of short term trend. If Friday closes well below 5691, weekly evening star gets confirmed and bearish undertone may continue.

2.         PCR at 1.00 and VIX at 16.49. Pre-open high/low at 5842.60/5650.95 and close at 5681.70. This indicates a flat to mildly +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         Targets of first two -WWs met in open itself.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5702NF, TARGET 5675/58 SL 5732.

5.         if SL is hit buy below 5734NF target 5760/68 SL 5704.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but made a higher high (though nifty fut made a lower high) and higher low than that yesterday. However, it closed -ve and well below yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met at open itself. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is a Doji. Friday's close didn't convincingly confirm a weekly evening star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (11/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5646/43 and 5607. Resistances are at about 5657, 5674, 5717 and 5727. Three likely +WWs give about 5702 (once above 5654), 5713 (once above 5665) and 5744 (once above 5690). +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. A likely -WW gives about 5604 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A rising channel mentioned in Wednesday's post seems to have broken down and now threatens to give about 5000. Also, a rising wedge can give about 5557 in case of a BD while two falling wedges give about 5715 and 5808 in case of a BO.

Nifty closed -ve on Wednesday and now indicates that lower levels are possible. The Harami Cross mentioned yesterday failed. Now, 5630-40 and 5725-35 are crucial zones and a daily close above/below them will give clear indication of the future trend. First sign of reversal and continuation of an uptrend would be if nifty opens above 5672 (preferably 5687) and closes above 5709 (preferably 5729).

2.         PCR down at 0.99 and VIX at 16.83. Pre-open high/low at 5666.35/5622.50 and close at 5663.50. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a slight gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5679NF, TARGET 5711.50 SL 5649.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         Forgot to mention that 9.30 strategy target met.

6.         Target of second +ww met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap (though nifty fut opened a bit down), made a lower low than that yesterday thereby giving hint of a bearish tone and remained in a horizontal channel of height 27 before suddenly breaking out. It made a higher high than that yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close as was indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first two +WWs and the first falling wedge mentioned in the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. Today's candle, though large and green, doesn't give confidence about continuation of uptrend yet.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.