Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (03/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5717, 5690/88, 5665, 5619 and 5604. Resistances are at about 5722, 5726, 5742, 5828 and 5864. I feel two important levels among these are 5828 and 5690. One likely +WW gives about 5738 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5712/5706/5689/5652 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5467. A likely AT gives about 5887 or 5519 in case of a BO or BD. The daily chart still shows -ve div.

Though Nifty did not make a higher high on Monday than that on Friday, it has closed at a new high. The bearishness indicated by the formation of Topping Tails on daily chart along with a -ve div and previous weekly star candle also seems to be vanishing slowly. However, this week's candle will only decide whether it becomes a weekly evening star. The trend is thus still uncertain but the only certain thing is strong liquidity.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 16.34. Pre-open high/low at 6156.40/5457.50 and close at 5727.70. The 10tf candle is the largest (700 high) in a long time and is a doji. It may indicate a -ve nifty after a slightly gap up open with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL AT/ABOVE 5751NF TARGET 5720/04 SL 5781.

4.         Target of +ww met at open itself.

5.         Two small +WWs give 5730/38.

6.         First +ww target met. One more +ww gives 5750.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, made a higher high and a higher low than those on Monday and, in the process, made a new high and closed at a new high too, a mildly +ve close. However, the total range being only about 26, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was hit. The target of +ww mentioned in the first post as well that of first +ww identified during the day were met. Today's candle is doji star and threatens to become an evening star depending upon Thursday's open/candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (01/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5691, 5685/81, 5669, 5656, 5640, 5618 and 5609. Resistances are at about 5705, 5714, 5719, 5723, 5748, 5773 and 5780. Two small +WWs give about 5720 (once above 5700) and 5731 (once above 5710) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5676/65/43 (once below 5697) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5467.

Nifty finally crossed 5720 and also closed above 5692 as mentioned in the first post for Thursday, thereby nullifying bearish sentiment given by the four consecutive inside bars. However, formation of Topping Tails on daily chart along with a -ve div and the fact that the weekly candle is a star, which may turn out to be an evening star, gives bearish sentiment once again. Monday's open and next week's candle will only decide whether it becomes an evening star. The trend is thus again uncertain and in fact a bit bearish.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5704.75/5477.60 and close at 5704.75. The 10tf candle is a long legged hammer and may indicate a mildly +ve nifty after a flat open. PCR down at 1.06 and VIX down at 16.16.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5704.50 TARGET 5682.60/70 SL 5734.50.

4.         A DT has formed today whose BO/BD gives about 12 points either way. If SL is hit buy below 5746 target 5768/81 SL 5716.

5.         SL hit. Let's see whether NS goes above 5723.

6.         Target of first +ww met. 5723 still not crossed.

7.         Nifty opened relatively flat and made a lower high and higher low before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close, as indicated by pre-open data. It thereby closed at a new high. The target of first +ww mentioned in the first post was met however, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was also hit but reverse trade did not give its target. BO of a DT identified during the day also gave its target.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/09/12

LEADER POST for Friday (28/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5647, 5639, 5634, 5623 and 5616. Resistances are at about 5655, 5664, 5688, 5714 and 5776. A number of +WWs give about 5677/79/88/93 & 5720 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5614 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5467 resp. A falling channel with its top at 5673 gives about 5721 in case of a BO.

Nifty closed -ve on Thursday as indicated by the previous inside bars but actually formed another inside bar to Friday's Mother bar (i.e. four consecutive inside bars). Though these can be reversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO once nifty crosses 5720 and also closes above 5692. Note that 23.6% retracement of the recent rise is about 5602 and nifty can go upto that, if not lower. Till a clear cut direction is established, best not to trade or hedge.

2.         PCR at 1.22 and VIX at 16.91. Pre-open high/low at 5737.30/5642.05 and close at 5684.80. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY ABOVE 5730NF TARGET 5757/74 SL 5700.

4.         First target met.

5.         Targets of all the five +WWs met.

6.         Two small -WWs give about 5712/5688 once below 5723/5702.

7.         Target of first -ww mentioned above considered met since 1-4 line was sloping up.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and after making a higher high (new recent high) and higher low, closed +ve and also above yesterday's close as indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of all the five +WWs stated in the first post were met so was the target of 9.30 strategy trade. What's more the gap up open resulted in the BO of falling channel mentioned in the first post and also gave its target.

When nifty reacted from the high, it also gave target of first -ww identified during the day. The target of second -ww was missed by about 7 and may come on 1st Oct. The daily candle is an inverted hammer. The important thing is that nifty not only crossed above 5720 but also closed above 5692 as stated in the first post.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (27/09/12)

1.         The supports are closely spaced at about 5662, 5652, 5635, 5631, 5627, 5624 and 5604. Resistances are at about 5669 and 5722. Two likely +WWs give about 5699/5701 (once above 5671/68 resp.) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5651/19 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on smaller tf and another one on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5632/5605 resp.

Nifty is consolidating and opened -ve as indicated by the two previous inside bars but actually closed mildly +ve on Wednesday though below Tuesday's close. But, Wednesday's candle is once again an inside bar to Friday's Mother bar (i.e. three consecutive inside bars). Though these can be reversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin with a BO once nifty crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though earlier two candles were inside bars, nifty closed +ve on Wednesday.

 

However, global clues are bearish. Hence if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must. it is important to note a few things.iversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO once nifty crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though earlier two candles were inside bars, nifty closed +ve on Wedne

However, global cues are bearish. Hence, if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.

However, global cues are bearish. Hence, if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if yoHowever, global cues are bearish. Hence, if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.
2.         PCR at 1.22 and VIX at 16.97. Pre-open high/low at 5674.45/5517.05 and close at 5673.75. The 10 tf candle is a hammer. This may indicate a flat to mildly +ve nifty after a slight gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5699NF TARGET 5657 SL 5729.

4.         A -ww gives 5653.

5.         Target achieved. Better book your shorts and go small long in Oct series. Targets of -ww stated in the first post and another -ww identified during day met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and made higher high and higher low than those yesterday but closed -ve and also below yesterday's low. The target of first +ww mentioned in the first post was missed by about 6 but that of the first -ww was met. Also met was target of another -ww identified during the day. In addition, target of 9.30 strategy target was also met. Today's candle is also an inside bar to Friday's candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/09/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (26/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5669/63, 5646/43, 5640/38 and 5635/34. Resistances are at about 5679/82, 5691, 5723, 5744 and 5764. Two likely +WWs give about 5695/98 (once above 5673/70 resp.) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5652/20 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on smaller tf and an another one on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5632/5605 resp.

Nifty is consolidating and closed flat on Tuesday. But, Tuesday's and Monday's candles have formed two consecutive inside bars to Friday's Mother bar. What's more, Tuesday's candle is also a Doji. Though these can be reversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO if Wednesday's candle crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though Monday's candle was an inside bar, nifty did not crack on Tuesday and also closed above Monday's close, albeit slightly. Even if Wednesday's candle is also an inside bar, it may still indicate possibility of continuation of uptrend if nifty crosses above levels on Thursday."parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO if Wednesday's candle crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though Monday's candle was an inside bar, nifty did not crack on Tuesday and also closed above Monday's close, albeit slightly. Even if Wednesday's candle is also an inside bar, it may still indicate possibility of continuation of the uptrend if nifty crosses the above levels on Thursday.

However, nifty is near a resistance zone and indicators are near overbought level. Hence, if nifty crosses below 5652, it may break down further and thereby reversing the trend. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is approaching, trade cautiously keeping the two important levels of 5703/5652 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.

2.         PCR at 1.23 VIX down at 17.11. Pre-open high/low at 5767.40/5613.60 and close at 5653.40. This may indicate a flat nifty after a slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5646NF TARGET 5621 SL 5676.

4.         SL triggered but wait for (5 tf) candle close.

5.         Target of first -ww was met in the morning.

6.         So far NF crossed SL (5676) 5 times but 5tf candle could not close at/above it.

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap taking global cues but remained flat within a range of about 33 as indicated by the pre-open data. It finally managed to close +ve but below yesterday's close. In the process, it created a third inside candle as stated in the first post. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met soon upon open. Also, though the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered 5 times, 5tf candle could not close above it indicating overall weakness.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (25/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5661, 5642, 5636, 5627 and 5610. Resistances are at about 5672, 5697, 5752 and 5757/60. Three likely +WWs give about 5683/87/95 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5644/24 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on smaller tf with a mast height 142 gives about 5805 unless killed below about 5632 while another with mast height of 185 on daily chart gives much higher level unless killed below about 5605. At the same time, a bearish flag gives about 5647 unless killed above about 5688.

Nifty is consolidating and closed -ve as indicated in the thread for Monday. However, a further upmove is possible soon considering that nifty made a new 52 week high before. The -ve div persists on daily chart though not on weekly chart. Now, a daily close below 5600 will have to be considered to be first sign of weakness. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is approaching, trade cautiously and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5930.75/5655 and close at 5674.90. This is the highest pre-open in a long time. Note that most of the previous pre-open high levels have been achieved except for 5737 on 7th Sept and 5802 on 17th Sept. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and if we consider nifty to be in a downtrend after the peak on 21st Sept, then it is a reversal sign and may indicate a +ve nifty after a flat to mildly +ve open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5698NF TARGET 5732/49 SL 5668.

4.         The targets of all the three +WWs met in first 5 min.

5.         SL triggered. Sell above 5682NF Target 5646 SL 5712.

6.         A DT is forming which may give plus/minus about 45 in case of a BO/BD.

7.         The DT finally gave a BO, target 5700NS.

8.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap but reacted immediately thereafter. It then remained flat till about noon before improving a bit to close almost flat but slightly above Monday's close. The targets of all the +WWs mentioned in the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade got triggered but target of reverse trade was not reached. The target of bearish flag mentioned in the first post was almost met. The target of BD of a ST mentioned in the first post of Monday also gave its target. A BO of a DT identified during the day almost gave its target.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (24/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5687, 5681, 5660 and 5588. Resistances are at about 5696/98, 5710 and 5733/38/43. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Four likely -WWs give about 5675, 5645 and 5633/25 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag with a mast height 142 gives about 5808 unless killed below about 5632. At the same time, a bearish flag gives about 5652 unless killed above about 5700.

Nifty broke past all resistances and previous levels in style on Friday. It made a 52 week high with hardly any retail participation. Also, most of this rally seems to be due to short covering and not only buying. This indicates that a further upmove is on cards. However, it may also consolidate here and also try to discount further bad political development, if any, considering that a -ve div has once again appeared on daily chart though not on weekly chart. Now, a daily close below 5600 will have to be considered to be first sign of weakness. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong.

2.         PCR up at 1.25 and VIX up at 18.93. Pre-open high/low at 5733.45/5619.25 and close at 5691.95. The 10tf candle is a Doji and may indicate uncertainty and a flat to mildly -ve nifty.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5742NF TARGET 5685/66 SL 5772. Note that first target is reached. So trade carefully.

4.         Target of first -ww was met. NS is in a small ST with apex at 5692.50. I feel a BD/BO is due soon.

5.         A bearish flag may gve 5660NS.

6.         (post by LKL) Bearish flag almost reached.

7.         Nifty opened flat (though nifty fut opened up with a gap), remained flat and finally went down to close -ve and also below Monday's close as was indicated by pre-open data. The total range was only 46. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met as also the first target of 9.30 strategy trade though, once again, opportunity for entry never came.

A ST identified during the day first gave a false BO but then retreated to give a BD and fell short of its target (5657) by 9, which may come on Tuesday. Similarly, a bearish flag identified during the day fell short of its target by just 3 and may too come on Tuesday.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.