Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/09/12

LEADER POST for Friday (28/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5647, 5639, 5634, 5623 and 5616. Resistances are at about 5655, 5664, 5688, 5714 and 5776. A number of +WWs give about 5677/79/88/93 & 5720 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5614 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5467 resp. A falling channel with its top at 5673 gives about 5721 in case of a BO.

Nifty closed -ve on Thursday as indicated by the previous inside bars but actually formed another inside bar to Friday's Mother bar (i.e. four consecutive inside bars). Though these can be reversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO once nifty crosses 5720 and also closes above 5692. Note that 23.6% retracement of the recent rise is about 5602 and nifty can go upto that, if not lower. Till a clear cut direction is established, best not to trade or hedge.

2.         PCR at 1.22 and VIX at 16.91. Pre-open high/low at 5737.30/5642.05 and close at 5684.80. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY ABOVE 5730NF TARGET 5757/74 SL 5700.

4.         First target met.

5.         Targets of all the five +WWs met.

6.         Two small -WWs give about 5712/5688 once below 5723/5702.

7.         Target of first -ww mentioned above considered met since 1-4 line was sloping up.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and after making a higher high (new recent high) and higher low, closed +ve and also above yesterday's close as indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of all the five +WWs stated in the first post were met so was the target of 9.30 strategy trade. What's more the gap up open resulted in the BO of falling channel mentioned in the first post and also gave its target.

When nifty reacted from the high, it also gave target of first -ww identified during the day. The target of second -ww was missed by about 7 and may come on 1st Oct. The daily candle is an inverted hammer. The important thing is that nifty not only crossed above 5720 but also closed above 5692 as stated in the first post.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.