Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (10/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5353, 5330/28 and 5265. Resistances are at about 5368, 5374 and 5405 while other previous levels to watch are 5399 and 5449. The +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5334 (once below 5347) and 5324/5310 (once below 5343) (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed +ve with a big margin on Friday and then again +ve with a small margin on Saturday giving, in the process, the targets of both +WWs mentioned in the post for Friday. But, though it made a high of about 5366 on Saturday, it could not close above 5360 mentioned over the last 2 days. Also, it has now closed above the previous high on 28th August and I feel it may take some time to consolidate before making the next move.

The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent. I feel Monday may be -ve and a revisit to Friday's low is not ruled out. In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. However, a close above 5374NS/5405NF is a must now for continuation of further upmove. An important aspect to note is that VIX closed at 14.76 on Saturday, it's lowest in at least 2 years.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5644.60/5346.65 and close at 5361.90. THis may indicate a flat to -ve market.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5367NF TARGET 5343/24 SL 5397.

4.         NF reacted from just short of R3 level mentioned on Friday.

5.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap but the high made in the first 5 minutes was never crossed. It made a higher high and a lower low than that on Saturday and closed slightly +ve and also above Saturday's close. However, Nifty Futures closed -ve and also below Saturday's close. The range was very narrow of about 24 points. With the result, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy call was triggered.

Today's candle is an imperfect "evening doji star", which is a sign of trend reversal. Imperfect because the opening was only with a slight gap up. One condition for an evening star is that the candle prior to the star should have low volume. Hence, if the market does indeed go down on Tuesday, the purpose of the special trading on Saturday will be obvious.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, please ignore the gap down after about 1pm since it is because the website giving this chart hanged.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/09/12

LEADER POST for Friday (07/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5233, 5222/20, 5210, 5202, 5180 and 5147. Resistances are at about 5251/53/57, 5268 and 5291 while other previous levels to watch are 5277, 5296 and 5332. Two likely +WWs give about 5350 (once above 5245) and 5359 (once above 5270) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). A likely -ww gives about 5228 (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently). An inverted flag gives lower level unless killed above about 5250.

Although nifty closed +ve on Thursday, its likely direction still seems to be a bit down considering that it closed below the psychological level of 5250 on two consecutive days. Wednesday's low is beckoning for a revisit and the long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away. Much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5260, 5291 and then 5360 is a must to imply bullish trend. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to be scarce as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent with a -ve bias. I feel Friday may be +ve but a revisit to Wednesday's low of about 5215 or even slightly lower levels is not ruled out.

2.         PCR at 0.94 and VIX at 16.98. Pre-open high/low at 5736.90/5238.40 and close at 5309.45. This is the highest pre-open in a long time. This may indicate a flat to -ve market after a big gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5342.50NF TARGET 5370/87 SL 5312.50.

4.         A number of -WWs give about 5320, 5317 and 5280 but I can't say when they will come.

5.         First -ww target met. Second -ww target met.

6.         NF is above R2 only and I feel it has scope to go to R3.

7.         Nifty opened up with a big gap taking cue from global markets and continued to inch up, finally closing +ve and well above Thursday's close. The target of first +ww mentioned in the first post was almost met. However, the target of 9.30 strategy trade was missed by a small margin. The targets of two -WWs identified during the day were also met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (06/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5213, 5206, 5189 and 5162. Resistance is at about 5250 while other previous levels to watch are 5296 and 5352. Two likely +WWs give about 5347 (once above 5248) and 5355 (once above 5300) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently. An inverted flag gives about 5200 unless killed above about 5241.

Nifty's likely direction still seems to be down. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5296 and then 5360 is a must to imply bullish trend. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to be scarce as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent with a -ve bias. I feel Thursday may be mildly +ve with revisit of Wednesday's low or lower levels may come later.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5258.50/5176.45 and close at 5217.65. This may indicate a flat to +ve market. PCR at 0.90 and VIX at 17.01.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5255.50NF TARGET 5277/97 SL 5225.50.

4.         Nifty seems to be in a DT on the verge of a BO.

5.         (9.30 strategy) Target met.

6.         I think nifty is in a rising wedge and may fall to 5220 is breaks down.

7.         A -WW gives 5230NS not much away from 5220 of wedge BD.

8.         -ww target met.

9.         An inverted flag gives lower levels unless killed above 5250.

10.       Nifty opened down with a small gap as expected but remained flat till afternoon before making an upmove. It made a slightly higher high than yesterday but also made a lower low. It could not sustain at higher level and finally managed to close +ve and also above yesterday's close as indicated by the pre-open data. In the process, it met the target of 9.30 strategy's long trade.

A Descending Triangle (DT) identified during the day gave its target upon Break Out (BO). A -WW identified later also gave its target. The Break Down of a rising wedge (or channel depending upon how it is drawn) identified in the afternoon reached just 10 short of its target and may reach the target tmrw.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/09/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (05/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5263, 5230, 5181 and 5162. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which was only partially filled on Tuesday and is under threat of being filled. Resistance is at about 5295 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Two likely +WWs give about 5343 (once above 5251) and 5353 (once above 5301) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently. A flag gives about 5300 unless killed below 5250.

Nifty may have closed mildly +ve on Tuesday and daily candle may be hammer but its likely direction seems down and seems to be in a mood to fill up the gap at 5215. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5296 and then 5360 is a must to imply bullish trend. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to be scarce as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent with a -ve bias. Nifty closed between a dicey zone of 5273-76 and can move either or both ways. I feel Wednesday may be very volatile.

2.         PCR flat at 0.91 VIX down to 16.59. Pre-open high/low at 5274/5246.75 and close at 5243.90. This indicates a -ve market. If market is going to go up as some believe, one possibility is that it will open with a gap down and that would be the bottom today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5253NF TARGET 5235/20 SL 5283.

4.         NS is in a small ST with appx. at 5252.90 and is moving within this ST for the last 70 min. BO/BD should come soon.

5.            Nifty opened down with a gap and, contrary to the bullish sentiment of some in the market based on late recovery yesterday, continued to go down as stated in the first post and as indicated by the pre-open data. Finally, it managed to fill the gap created on 3rd/6th August. In spite of that, the target of 9.30 strategy short trade was missed by about 5. The trend seems to be down unless we see a big Green candle tmrw.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (04/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5245, 5236/34, 5203 and 5188. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which is now under threat of being filled. Resistances are at about 5260 and 5284 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5341 (once above 5354), 5343 (once above 5286) and 5356 (once above 5316) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently.

Nifty may have closed only mildly -ve on Monday but its likely direction seems down only and now seems to be in a mood to fill up the gap at 5215. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5360 is a must to give hope. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to have vanished as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept. looks turbulent with a -ve bias.

2.         PCR at 0.91 and VIX at 17.28. Pre-open high/low at 5265/5223.25 and close at 5249.15.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5272NF TARGET 5244/25 SL 5302.

4.         Short sellers should lower SL to cost as nifty is not making a new low ..... as yet. If it closes above 5250NS, it may not go down further.

5.         A flag gives higher level unless killed below about 5247.

6.         If SL is triggered, target 5319/5323NF SL 5266. ‎5276NS is crucial intermediate level to be crossed to maintain up move.

7.         NS opened slightly -ve while NF opened slightly +ve, made a lower high and lower low than Monday but closed +ve and also above Monday's close thereby giving a hint that it may have reversed. The second support zone held in spite of three attempts to cross it and may imply accumulation. The SL of 9.30 strategy's short trade was hit but target of reverse long trade was not met. Today's candle is a hammer and may indicate trend reversal i.e. uptrend.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (03/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5246/44, 5232, 5228/26 and 5207. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled if nifty moves further down. Resistances are at about 5261 and 5304 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Two likely +WWs give about 5337/49 (once above 5356) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently. A likely inverted flag with 64 high mast gives lower level unless nullified above about 5280.

Nifty lost more ground on Friday and now seems to be in a mood to fill up the gap at 5215. On daily charts, it closed below 34 ema and 89 ema is at about 5215. The lower TL from June low also gives 5215. A daily close below 5234 will be bad. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5360 is a must to give hope. Liquidity is the only issue that will support market. The period till 12/13th sept looks turbulent.

2.         PCR at 0.90 but VIX up at 17.30.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5307NF TARGET 5341/61 SL 5277.

4.         SL hit now target 5264/61.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but that proved to be the only plus point for the day as it kept going down. It did attempt about 30 point recovery midway but could not scale the morning high and ended -ve and also slightly below the previous close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. However, the first support zone managed to hold.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, unfortunately it is only from 12.30.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (31/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5276/74 and 5240/35. Also, there was a gap created at 5215 on 3rd August, which may be filled if nifty moves further down. Resistances are at about 5320, 5341 and 5350 while other previous levels to watch are 5352 and 5399. Three likely +WWs give about 5360, 5433 (once above 5363) and 5481 (once above 5354) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). An old -ww gives 5234 (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned). A likely flag with 70 high mast gives higher level unless nullified below about 5297. The falling wedge mentioned yesterday seems to have broken out and may give about 5450 unless it's a false break out.

Nifty recovered after a further fall on Thursday and seems to be in a mood to resume its upward journey. However, there are many ifs and buts. Friday, being the last day of the week, should not have a low below 5250/45 and should close above 5388 to remain bullish. However, 5360-75 is a good resistance zone. Nifty will have to give a break out above that to sustain its upmove for weeks to come. Otherwise, the gap on 3rd August is not far away nor is the "famous" zone since many years 5170-90. A lot of important news events are lined up in next 2 weeks and hence trade carefully.

2.         PCR down to 0.93 and VIX at 16.67. Pre-open high/low at 5315.05/5270.80 and close at 5298.20. The narrow range indicates uncertainty due to important news day. But a small gap down open looks certain.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5301.50NF TARGET 5281/66 SL 5331.50.

4.         Two -WWs give 5282/5240NS.

5.         First -ww target of 5282 met.

‎6.         9.30 strategy's first target considered met although it may go lower!

7.         Nifty opened down once again with a small gap, failed in its attempt to make a higher high than yesterday and then started sliding down to make a new low. It closed -ve and also below previous close. The target of an old -ww stated in the first post was almost met so also the targets of two -WWs identified during the day. The falling wedge break out of Thursday failed again. The first target of 9.30 strategy was also met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.