Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (22/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5413, 5402, 5397/93, 5389/86/84 and 5364 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09 and 5294. Resistances are in a zone of about 5427-30. A +ww gives much higher level but will be posted once nifty nears such a level. Two likely -WWs gives about 5337 (once below 5406) and 5297 (once below 5361) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A huge likely bullish flag gives levels in excess of 5600 unless killed below about 5200.

Nifty made a new high on Tuesday and also closed at a new high above 5400 indicating strong bullish tendency. But 5430 and 5480-5500 is a stiff resistance zone. What's more, the -ve div persists on rsi on daily chart and I feel nifty may consolidate till a +ve div develops. Volatility will increase this week. Further upmove is likely next week.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5421/5390.65 and close at 5395.75. It indicates likely negative trend with a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5411NF TARGET 5446/67 SL 5381.

4.         Target met.

5.         NS has crossed all resistance levels now time for a pause. NF has also crossed R2 level and has reached crucial number of 5454. So watch out.

6.         A bearish flag gives 5394NS unless killed above 5425.

7.         Nifty opened down with a gap, remained flat till afternoon and then went up to make a new high slightly above the resistance zone. However, it reacted later to close -ve and also below yesterday's close though not as -ve as indicated by the pre-open. The low was within the third support zone. The target of 9.30 strategy was met. The total range was about 38 points. The -ve div persists on daily chart.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (21/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5352, 5340 and 5328 while other previous lows to watch are about 5346/30/09 and 5294. Resistances are at about 5367, 5377, 5404 and above 5430. Two likely +WWs give about 5380 (once above 5341, the point 5 which is not reached yet) and 5430 (+WWs giving higher targets are not mentioned) while a likely -ww gives about 5310 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). A likely bullish flag with a mast of about 105 can gives higher levels unless killed below about 5337. Nifty made a new high on Friday but closed lower but at the TL from the low of 26th July indicating some support coming in and uncertainty in the market.

Nifty is looking bullish but 5390-5420 is still a stiff resistance zone. As long as it does not close below 5300 on daily/weekly basis, there should be no worry. Volatility will increase in coming week as nifty approaches expiry. Also, it may remain relatively flat to consolidate in case there is further upside left, which is very likely.

2.         PCR at 1.18 and VIX at 15.73. Pre-open high/low at 5368.70/5310.60 and close at 5368.70 i.e. close at highest. This indicates that nifty may be flat to +ve.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5391NF TARGET 5425/34 SL 5361.

4.         A flag gives 5420 unless killed below 5378. I missed to mention the first +ww target was met in first 5 min.

5.         Let's see whether we get 5454 today.

‎6.         (Post by LLK) "TARGET 5425/34 " achieved.

‎7.         90 above yesterday's low! +ww target of 5430 considered met as it was appx.

8.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap, did not break opening low and remained flat till 12.30 before making its strong upmove. It took out three resistance levels, gave targets of both +WWs as well as the flag identified during the day, giving a bullish hint as stated in the first post. It gave the target of 9.30 strategy but without giving a chance for an ideal entry. In the process, it not only made a new high but also closed at a new high, that too above 5400. The only worrisome aspect is that -ve div on rsi on daily chart still remains.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (17/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5355/54/51 and 5343 while resistances are at about 5369, 5379, 5394/95 and above 5425. Three likely +WWs give about 5388, 5392 and 5420 (+WWs giving higher targets are not mentioned) while a likely -WW gives about 5314 (once below 5358) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned). Nifty made a new high on Thursday but closed lower. The top of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) is at about 5500. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 60 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5355.

Nifty is looking bullish but 5390-5420 is a stiff resistance zone. However, with a long weekend ahead, it may react and settle lower on Friday. At the same time, as long as it does not close below 5300 on daily/weekly basis, there should be no worry. Volatility may increase as nifty approaches its peak. Also, it may remain flat to consolidate in case there is further upside left, which is very likely.

2.         There is -ve div on rsi on daily chart and Friday's closing will give us further idea about daily and weekly chart and its indicators.

3.         PCR at 1.18 and VIX at 15.69. Pre-open high/low at 5369.30/5333.45 and close at 5368.60. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate flat to +ve market.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5398NF TARGET 5425/43 SL 5367.

5.         I feel target of 5425NF may not come, may be only 5422 so be careful and raise SL to at least 5386NF if not higher.

6.         First two targets of +ww stated in first post and target of another +ww of 5412NF met.

7.         A bearish flag gives 5368NS unless nullified above about 5392.

8.         Flag target met. may be it will end at 5361/63.

9.         One more flag may give 5356.

10.       Flag target considered met.

11.       I feel it's worth taking a chance and go long for a while. sold for 34 gain.

12.       A bearish flag again may give 5322NS unless nullified above 5376

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (16/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5352/50, 5346/45 and 5328/24 while resistances are at about 5388, 5400 and 5460. Two likely +WWs give about 5385 and 5415 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5323 (once below 5357) and 5293 (once below 5348) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). Nifty made a new high on Tuesday and also closed at its highest since March. The top of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) is at about 5480. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 55 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5355.

Nifty is looking bullish but 5390-5420 is a stiff resistance zone. It has been making higher lows and higher highs in the last few days. At the same time, as long as it does not cross below 5280 on the lower side on daily basis, there should be no worry. Volatility may increase as nifty approaches its peak. Also, it may remain flat to consolidate in case there is further upside left.

2.         PCR at 1.21 and VIX at 15.64. Pre-open high/low at 5386.55/5339.55 and close at 5385.95. The 10 tf candle is a hanging man. This may indicate a -ve trend today. But we need to see whether next 10tf candle closes below 5380 to confirm -ve trend.

3.         At least next 10tf candle closed above 5380 thereby nullifying -ve trend indicated by pre-open. However, I feel 5368/65NF is possible on down side.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5391NF TARGET 5367/49 SL 5421.

5.         Nifty opened slightly up, made a higher high (though NF made a lower high) than Tuesday but then reacted to close mildly -ve and also below Tuesday's close. The target of first +ww was met soon after open. However, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered as nifty remained in a small range of about 33. Nifty has closed with indicators near oversold zone and with a mild +ve div on rsi.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (14/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5338, 5326, 5321 and 5314 while resistances are at about 5354/56, 5386, 5400 and 5460. Two likely +WWs give about 5380 and 5410 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5311 (once below 5330) and 5293 (once below 5344) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). Nifty bounced off the bottom of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) on Monday whose top is about 5460. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 43 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5325 and an apparent falling wedge formed in the last few days has broken out giving about 5376.

Nifty is now at a break out level. As long as it does not cross 5280/60 on the lower side on daily basis, uptrend is intact considering that it closed at its highest since 3rd April. Liquidity flow is strong. Tuesday is a day of inflation numbers and will be volatile. Hence trade with good SLs.

2.         I will be away in the morning and will not able to post but will try to post 9.30 strategy through Lalitji. However, I am giving one hint for ease of those interested. Whatever the open (O) value, buy around O-0.75% and sell at O+0.75% (but not short sell). At the same time, I feel NF may not go below 5345 though retesting of previous low of 5320NF is not ruled out. Market could be volatile due to inflation data coming out today.

3.         (Post by LKL) 09:30 strategy SELL ABOVE 5350 TARGET 5330 SL 5380.

4.         (Post by LKL) SL triggered with Nifty 5391+ Future already.

5.         NS made a slightly higher high than previous one on 8th Oct. but 5386 is not crossed yet. In the process, targets of first +ww, flag and falling wedge breakout mentioned in the first post met.

6.         A 39 high mast flag fails below 5345NS.

7.         Nifty almost 90 above yesterday's low. Long holders should keep tight SL now e.g. 5390NF.

8.         If it breaks 5374NS, further fall is possible.

9.         Finally nifty got tired after 90 above yesterday's low, as it always does.

10.       Nifty opened flat and remained mildly -ve till 11.30 and once inflation data was out, it started its much awaited upmove. It made a new high since 16th March, closed +ve and also above Monday's close and its highest since 15th March. The second support and resistance levels held. Nifty met targets of first +ww, flag and wedge breakout mentioned in the first post. Once again, the SL for 9.30 strategy's "sell" call was triggered. Nifty could not go up more than 90 points above Monday's low and could not cross 5387.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (13/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5317, 5308, 5302 and 5280 while resistances are at 5327-30, 5380 and 5454. Four likely +WWs give about 5347, 5372, 5380 and 5400 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5308 and 5275/70 (once below 5300) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). However, nifty closed at the bottom of the channel that has formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) whose top is 5454. Also, a likely bullish flag gives 5346 and an apparent falling wedge formed in the last few days seems to have broken out giving about 5376.

Nifty is now at a crucial junction for a make or break situation. As long as it does not cross 5260 on daily basis, I feel uptrend is intact. The shape of things to come may be known from how nifty closes on Monday i.e. above 5350 (with a possible gap up open above 5320) or below 5295 (with a possible gap down open below 5308). Remember that liquidity flow is strong. Best to trade cautiously with good SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.17 and VIX 16.07. Pre-open high/low at 5320.40/5163.95 and close at 5316.35. This may indicate a flat to +ve trend.

3.         Immediate trend is down with target 5298NF and SL 5344. Wait for 9.30 call.

4.         Trend reversed but wait for9.30.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5360NF, TARGET 5378/94 SL 5330.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered. as mentioned earlier target now 5297/88 SL 5344.

7.         Unless NS breaks above 5330, nifty may remain flat.

8.         (SL of reverse trade triggered again and trend is up again) second target revised to 5388NF from 5394.

9.         Waiting for +ww target of 5350NS but wonder whether it will come today. Flag target mentioned in first post met.

10.       First +ww target met.

11.       First target of 9.30 strategy considered met as NF made a high of 5377.70

12.       Nifty opened almost flat and remained flat to -ve till 1.40pm before starting its sharp rise. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met. But the second support level of 5308 held while the first resistance area of 5327-30 was easily taken out. It thus not only closed +ve (as was indicated after pre-open) but also above Friday's close.

In the process, the targets of first +ww and of flag mentioned in the first post were also met. Ironically, the SL of 9.30 strategy buy call was triggered first then SL of reverse sell trade was triggered and then target of first buy call was met.

More importantly, though it did not close above psychologically important (to many) level of 5350, it closed at its highest since 3rd April thereby indicating a bullish undercurrent. It should now take out 5369 and 5378 to continue its upward march.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (10/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5317, 5306, 5295 and 5289. Resistances are at 5324/27, 5331, 5336 and 5380. Three likely +WWs give about 5356, 5400 and 5426 while, on the other hand, two likely -WWs give about 5299 and 5274 (once below 5305). The other -WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned. However, 5289 is the bottom of a channel that has formed and I feel it may not be breached, except probably intraday.

Nifty reacted on Thursday due to poor IIP data. The daily candles for NS for last 3 days seem to have formed an evening star although not a perfect one. However, NF daily candles for last 3 days do not show such a pattern. Hence, the trend is uncertain/ confusing. It is still likely that nifty may fall further but as long as it does not cross 5260 on daily basis, I feel uptrend is intact. Remember that liquidity flow is strong with FIIs continuing to buy heavily. And hence trade cautiously.

2.         I forgot to mention that there is a -ve div on most indicators on daily charts and that's why the possibility that nifty may react a bit unless a strong upmove from tmrw negates it.

3.         PCR at 1.15 and VIX at 16.33. Pre-open high/low at 5322.95/5186.50 and close at 5308.20. Pre-open may indicate flat to +ve trend.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5326NF, TARGET 5301/5284 SL 5356.

5.         ………nifty chart seems to be forming cup and handle and if so, it will break out. If it is true and breaks out target is 5380+330 on lower tf and 5350+580 on daily charts.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered. Now buy below 5351NF Target 5381 SL 5321.

7.         First target of -ww already met around 1pm.

8.         Nifty opened down with a small gap according to global clues and closed slightly +ve as indicated by pre-open data. However, it closed slightly below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met. However, the lower end of channel was respected with NS making a low about 5294.

The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. Nifty closing flat was a surprise considering that index heavyweight SBI was very weak, thereby showing that liquidity was high.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.