Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (16/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5352/50, 5346/45 and 5328/24 while resistances are at about 5388, 5400 and 5460. Two likely +WWs give about 5385 and 5415 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5323 (once below 5357) and 5293 (once below 5348) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). Nifty made a new high on Tuesday and also closed at its highest since March. The top of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) is at about 5480. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 55 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5355.

Nifty is looking bullish but 5390-5420 is a stiff resistance zone. It has been making higher lows and higher highs in the last few days. At the same time, as long as it does not cross below 5280 on the lower side on daily basis, there should be no worry. Volatility may increase as nifty approaches its peak. Also, it may remain flat to consolidate in case there is further upside left.

2.         PCR at 1.21 and VIX at 15.64. Pre-open high/low at 5386.55/5339.55 and close at 5385.95. The 10 tf candle is a hanging man. This may indicate a -ve trend today. But we need to see whether next 10tf candle closes below 5380 to confirm -ve trend.

3.         At least next 10tf candle closed above 5380 thereby nullifying -ve trend indicated by pre-open. However, I feel 5368/65NF is possible on down side.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5391NF TARGET 5367/49 SL 5421.

5.         Nifty opened slightly up, made a higher high (though NF made a lower high) than Tuesday but then reacted to close mildly -ve and also below Tuesday's close. The target of first +ww was met soon after open. However, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered as nifty remained in a small range of about 33. Nifty has closed with indicators near oversold zone and with a mild +ve div on rsi.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (14/08/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5338, 5326, 5321 and 5314 while resistances are at about 5354/56, 5386, 5400 and 5460. Two likely +WWs give about 5380 and 5410 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5311 (once below 5330) and 5293 (once below 5344) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). Nifty bounced off the bottom of the channel that had formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) on Monday whose top is about 5460. Also, a likely bullish flag with a mast of about 43 has formed and can gives higher levels unless killed below 5325 and an apparent falling wedge formed in the last few days has broken out giving about 5376.

Nifty is now at a break out level. As long as it does not cross 5280/60 on the lower side on daily basis, uptrend is intact considering that it closed at its highest since 3rd April. Liquidity flow is strong. Tuesday is a day of inflation numbers and will be volatile. Hence trade with good SLs.

2.         I will be away in the morning and will not able to post but will try to post 9.30 strategy through Lalitji. However, I am giving one hint for ease of those interested. Whatever the open (O) value, buy around O-0.75% and sell at O+0.75% (but not short sell). At the same time, I feel NF may not go below 5345 though retesting of previous low of 5320NF is not ruled out. Market could be volatile due to inflation data coming out today.

3.         (Post by LKL) 09:30 strategy SELL ABOVE 5350 TARGET 5330 SL 5380.

4.         (Post by LKL) SL triggered with Nifty 5391+ Future already.

5.         NS made a slightly higher high than previous one on 8th Oct. but 5386 is not crossed yet. In the process, targets of first +ww, flag and falling wedge breakout mentioned in the first post met.

6.         A 39 high mast flag fails below 5345NS.

7.         Nifty almost 90 above yesterday's low. Long holders should keep tight SL now e.g. 5390NF.

8.         If it breaks 5374NS, further fall is possible.

9.         Finally nifty got tired after 90 above yesterday's low, as it always does.

10.       Nifty opened flat and remained mildly -ve till 11.30 and once inflation data was out, it started its much awaited upmove. It made a new high since 16th March, closed +ve and also above Monday's close and its highest since 15th March. The second support and resistance levels held. Nifty met targets of first +ww, flag and wedge breakout mentioned in the first post. Once again, the SL for 9.30 strategy's "sell" call was triggered. Nifty could not go up more than 90 points above Monday's low and could not cross 5387.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (13/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5317, 5308, 5302 and 5280 while resistances are at 5327-30, 5380 and 5454. Four likely +WWs give about 5347, 5372, 5380 and 5400 (+WWs giving higher levels are not mentioned) while two likely -WWs give about 5308 and 5275/70 (once below 5300) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned). However, nifty closed at the bottom of the channel that has formed (and mentioned in earlier posts) whose top is 5454. Also, a likely bullish flag gives 5346 and an apparent falling wedge formed in the last few days seems to have broken out giving about 5376.

Nifty is now at a crucial junction for a make or break situation. As long as it does not cross 5260 on daily basis, I feel uptrend is intact. The shape of things to come may be known from how nifty closes on Monday i.e. above 5350 (with a possible gap up open above 5320) or below 5295 (with a possible gap down open below 5308). Remember that liquidity flow is strong. Best to trade cautiously with good SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.17 and VIX 16.07. Pre-open high/low at 5320.40/5163.95 and close at 5316.35. This may indicate a flat to +ve trend.

3.         Immediate trend is down with target 5298NF and SL 5344. Wait for 9.30 call.

4.         Trend reversed but wait for9.30.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5360NF, TARGET 5378/94 SL 5330.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered. as mentioned earlier target now 5297/88 SL 5344.

7.         Unless NS breaks above 5330, nifty may remain flat.

8.         (SL of reverse trade triggered again and trend is up again) second target revised to 5388NF from 5394.

9.         Waiting for +ww target of 5350NS but wonder whether it will come today. Flag target mentioned in first post met.

10.       First +ww target met.

11.       First target of 9.30 strategy considered met as NF made a high of 5377.70

12.       Nifty opened almost flat and remained flat to -ve till 1.40pm before starting its sharp rise. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met. But the second support level of 5308 held while the first resistance area of 5327-30 was easily taken out. It thus not only closed +ve (as was indicated after pre-open) but also above Friday's close.

In the process, the targets of first +ww and of flag mentioned in the first post were also met. Ironically, the SL of 9.30 strategy buy call was triggered first then SL of reverse sell trade was triggered and then target of first buy call was met.

More importantly, though it did not close above psychologically important (to many) level of 5350, it closed at its highest since 3rd April thereby indicating a bullish undercurrent. It should now take out 5369 and 5378 to continue its upward march.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (10/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5317, 5306, 5295 and 5289. Resistances are at 5324/27, 5331, 5336 and 5380. Three likely +WWs give about 5356, 5400 and 5426 while, on the other hand, two likely -WWs give about 5299 and 5274 (once below 5305). The other -WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned. However, 5289 is the bottom of a channel that has formed and I feel it may not be breached, except probably intraday.

Nifty reacted on Thursday due to poor IIP data. The daily candles for NS for last 3 days seem to have formed an evening star although not a perfect one. However, NF daily candles for last 3 days do not show such a pattern. Hence, the trend is uncertain/ confusing. It is still likely that nifty may fall further but as long as it does not cross 5260 on daily basis, I feel uptrend is intact. Remember that liquidity flow is strong with FIIs continuing to buy heavily. And hence trade cautiously.

2.         I forgot to mention that there is a -ve div on most indicators on daily charts and that's why the possibility that nifty may react a bit unless a strong upmove from tmrw negates it.

3.         PCR at 1.15 and VIX at 16.33. Pre-open high/low at 5322.95/5186.50 and close at 5308.20. Pre-open may indicate flat to +ve trend.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5326NF, TARGET 5301/5284 SL 5356.

5.         ………nifty chart seems to be forming cup and handle and if so, it will break out. If it is true and breaks out target is 5380+330 on lower tf and 5350+580 on daily charts.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy triggered. Now buy below 5351NF Target 5381 SL 5321.

7.         First target of -ww already met around 1pm.

8.         Nifty opened down with a small gap according to global clues and closed slightly +ve as indicated by pre-open data. However, it closed slightly below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met. However, the lower end of channel was respected with NS making a low about 5294.

The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. Nifty closing flat was a surprise considering that index heavyweight SBI was very weak, thereby showing that liquidity was high.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (09/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5328 and 5262. Resistances are at 5377, 5383 and 5390. Two likely -WWs give about 5290 and 5225 (once below 5298). The other -ww with much lower level is not mentioned. However, 5262 is the bottom of a channel that has formed and I feel it may not be breached.

Nifty could not reach 5380 mentioned in post for Wednesday and reacted sharply thereafter. The daily candle for NS is an inverted hammer, which is not bad but the same for NF is a doji star. A gap down opening followed by a fall with a close on Thursday well below Tuesday's close will confirm bearishness. At the same time, a close well above Tuesday's close will negate this bearishness. Remember that liquidity flow is strong with FIIs continuing to buy heavily. And hence trade cautiously.

2.         BUY BELOW 5375 NF FOR TARGET 5405 (and may be 5420) SL 5345. As it is IIP data release day, it may be volatile.

3.         SL triggered with 5338 NF low so far.

4.         Surprisingly, contrary to yesterday's candle's bearish sentiment, nifty again opened up with a small gap but could not sustain and finally closed -ve and below yesterday's close, thanks mainly to a poor IIP data. The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but NF did not go down much beyond that, managing to remain above 5330 mentioned yesterday. Today's NS candle seems to have formed an evening star although not a perfect one. However, like yesterday, NF daily candle does not show such a pattern. Hence, the trend is uncertain/ confusing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (08/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5325, 5273/68, 5237 and 5223. Resistances are at 5351, 5368, 5380 and 5406. Two likely -WWs give about 5282 (once below 5327) and 5251 (once below 5304). The other -ww with much lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty finally broke out of crucial zone of 5286-95 to cross above the previous high of 5348 but could not sustain. So to begin with, Tuesday's high of about 5350 must be crossed and sustained to ensure further rise. Otherwise, in the event of a mere retesting and retracement from Tuesday's high will invite selling. Market players seem to be upbeat about new FM's recent announcements considering that FIIs have been buying incessantly. Hence, a bear trap by retracement from Tuesday's high can not be ruled out. At the same time, generally nothing happens when Parliament session is on (though a number of important bills are due for approval) and big players may take a breather. Best is to trade with good SLs or even hedge.

2.         PCR at 1.15 and VIX at 16.21. Both have gone up. Pre-open high/low at 5380.25/5258.50 and close at 5345.25. The 10tf candle is a long legged doji and may indicate uncertainty and volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5371 TARGET 5395/5415 SL 5341. EXPECT VOLATILITY IN VIEW OF CONFUSION AMONG TRADERS/PLAYERS ABOUT FUTURE OF NIFTY. NOTE NS AND NF HAVE CROSSED YESTERDAY'S RESPECTIVE HIGHS.

4.         A likely flag gives 5371NF unless killed below 5354.

5.         Flag target considered reached being only 1.20 below 5371.

6.         Crossing and remaining above 5359 NS now is a must for any further upmove.

7.         First target almost reached. Book at least partially and raise SL to 5364 or cost whichever is higher. Remember change time 2.22pm. Also, 5380NS may be max.

8.         Made a high of 5376.45.

9.         Once again nifty opened up with a small gap, went up to as much as 5376 before reacting sharply. Both NS and NF closed above yesterday's close but slightly -ve w.r.t. to today's open. NS candle formed an inverted hammer while NF candle was a doji star.

The uncertainty and volatility was as indicated by the pre-open candle. The target of 9.30 strategy was almost met. A bullish flag identified during the day also gave its target. NF closed above 5353, an important number as per one number theory and hence it doesn't help being extremely bearish form here.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (07/08/12)

1.         The supports are closely grouped at 5280, 5273/71, 5260/58, 5253/50, 5230 and 5212/10. Resistances are at 5288, 5291/94, 5318 and 5333 while other level to watch is 5295 and 5358. An upper resistance is 5346. Two likely +WWs give about 5313 and 5320 while two likely -WWs give about 5144 and 5114 (once below 5222). The other -ww with lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty finally broke out of crucial level of 5250 to close above previous high of 5267 but closed in the resistance zone. So to begin with 5295 is one crucial level. The gap created on 12/07 (5306) is yet to be filled up. As of now, nifty doesn't seem to have enough steam to go to much higher levels unless we see a series of +ve actions from the Govt. Monday's brief speech by FM seems to have given some hope and it's possible that FIIs may see it +vely. So, we may see another upmove on Tuesday. But remember that strong resistances exist at 5346 and 5380.

2.         PCR at 1.08 and VIX at 16.22. Pre-open high/low 5323.10/5228.65 and close at 5295.40. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate flat trend with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5278NF TARGET 5261/45 SL 5308. BUT REMEMBER TODAY COULD BE VOLATILE IN A FLAT RANGE AND SLs ON EITHER SIDE COULD BE TRIGGERED AS IT HAPPENED JUST NOW WHEN IT TRIGGERED SL FOR LONG TREND JUST BEFORE 9.30. IF SL FOR THIS SHORT TRADE IS TRIGGERED AGAIN, BUY WITH SL 5293 AND TARGET 5341/61. I FEEL EITHER SIDE TARGETS MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED TODAY.

4.         Upper target revised down to 5356 from 5361NF.

‎5.         12th July gap filled up.

6.         A likely bullish flag fails below about 5308NF. First +ww target mentioned in the first post met. Second only a few points away.

7.         Second +ww target also met. Let's see if bullish flag mentioned above gives 5350NF.

8.         First target of 9.30 strategy reached. raise SL to 5323NF. Flag target met.

9.         A +ww target mentioned on 20/07 also met though increased since then.

10.       Nifty opened up with a small gap and, contrary to indication given by the pre-open candle, gradually climbed up to fill up the gap created on 12th July and finally closed +ve and also above Monday's close. It did not break any supports and went past all resistances to marginally break previous high of 5348 (and also the upper TL from Feb high) before reacting a bit. Apparently, buyers took +ve cue from FM's speech on Monday as stated in the first post.

In the process, both the targets of +WWs were met. Also met was the target of a +ww mentioned in the post for 20/07 though it had gone up since then. The SL of initial "sell" trade given by 9.30 strategy was triggered soon after 9.30 and both the targets of reverse "buy" trade were met. A bullish flag identified during the day also gave its target. In short, a satisfactory day for trading.

The intraday chart of nifty fut values with 5 min candles is shown below.