Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/09/12

LEADER POST for Friday (28/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5647, 5639, 5634, 5623 and 5616. Resistances are at about 5655, 5664, 5688, 5714 and 5776. A number of +WWs give about 5677/79/88/93 & 5720 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5614 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5467 resp. A falling channel with its top at 5673 gives about 5721 in case of a BO.

Nifty closed -ve on Thursday as indicated by the previous inside bars but actually formed another inside bar to Friday's Mother bar (i.e. four consecutive inside bars). Though these can be reversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO once nifty crosses 5720 and also closes above 5692. Note that 23.6% retracement of the recent rise is about 5602 and nifty can go upto that, if not lower. Till a clear cut direction is established, best not to trade or hedge.

2.         PCR at 1.22 and VIX at 16.91. Pre-open high/low at 5737.30/5642.05 and close at 5684.80. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY ABOVE 5730NF TARGET 5757/74 SL 5700.

4.         First target met.

5.         Targets of all the five +WWs met.

6.         Two small -WWs give about 5712/5688 once below 5723/5702.

7.         Target of first -ww mentioned above considered met since 1-4 line was sloping up.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and after making a higher high (new recent high) and higher low, closed +ve and also above yesterday's close as indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of all the five +WWs stated in the first post were met so was the target of 9.30 strategy trade. What's more the gap up open resulted in the BO of falling channel mentioned in the first post and also gave its target.

When nifty reacted from the high, it also gave target of first -ww identified during the day. The target of second -ww was missed by about 7 and may come on 1st Oct. The daily candle is an inverted hammer. The important thing is that nifty not only crossed above 5720 but also closed above 5692 as stated in the first post.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (27/09/12)

1.         The supports are closely spaced at about 5662, 5652, 5635, 5631, 5627, 5624 and 5604. Resistances are at about 5669 and 5722. Two likely +WWs give about 5699/5701 (once above 5671/68 resp.) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5651/19 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on smaller tf and another one on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5632/5605 resp.

Nifty is consolidating and opened -ve as indicated by the two previous inside bars but actually closed mildly +ve on Wednesday though below Tuesday's close. But, Wednesday's candle is once again an inside bar to Friday's Mother bar (i.e. three consecutive inside bars). Though these can be reversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin with a BO once nifty crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though earlier two candles were inside bars, nifty closed +ve on Wednesday.

 

However, global clues are bearish. Hence if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must. it is important to note a few things.iversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO once nifty crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though earlier two candles were inside bars, nifty closed +ve on Wedne

However, global cues are bearish. Hence, if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.

However, global cues are bearish. Hence, if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if yoHowever, global cues are bearish. Hence, if nifty crosses below Wednesday's low, it may break down further. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is on Thursday, trade cautiously keeping the important level of 5703 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.
2.         PCR at 1.22 and VIX at 16.97. Pre-open high/low at 5674.45/5517.05 and close at 5673.75. The 10 tf candle is a hammer. This may indicate a flat to mildly +ve nifty after a slight gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5699NF TARGET 5657 SL 5729.

4.         A -ww gives 5653.

5.         Target achieved. Better book your shorts and go small long in Oct series. Targets of -ww stated in the first post and another -ww identified during day met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and made higher high and higher low than those yesterday but closed -ve and also below yesterday's low. The target of first +ww mentioned in the first post was missed by about 6 but that of the first -ww was met. Also met was target of another -ww identified during the day. In addition, target of 9.30 strategy target was also met. Today's candle is also an inside bar to Friday's candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/09/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (26/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5669/63, 5646/43, 5640/38 and 5635/34. Resistances are at about 5679/82, 5691, 5723, 5744 and 5764. Two likely +WWs give about 5695/98 (once above 5673/70 resp.) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5652/20 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on smaller tf and an another one on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5632/5605 resp.

Nifty is consolidating and closed flat on Tuesday. But, Tuesday's and Monday's candles have formed two consecutive inside bars to Friday's Mother bar. What's more, Tuesday's candle is also a Doji. Though these can be reversal signals, it is important to note a few things. Since 200 ema and "parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO if Wednesday's candle crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though Monday's candle was an inside bar, nifty did not crack on Tuesday and also closed above Monday's close, albeit slightly. Even if Wednesday's candle is also an inside bar, it may still indicate possibility of continuation of uptrend if nifty crosses above levels on Thursday."parabolic sar" show bullish trend, the upmove may begin again with a BO if Wednesday's candle crosses above 5703 and then 5720. It is interesting to note that even though Monday's candle was an inside bar, nifty did not crack on Tuesday and also closed above Monday's close, albeit slightly. Even if Wednesday's candle is also an inside bar, it may still indicate possibility of continuation of the uptrend if nifty crosses the above levels on Thursday.

However, nifty is near a resistance zone and indicators are near overbought level. Hence, if nifty crosses below 5652, it may break down further and thereby reversing the trend. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is approaching, trade cautiously keeping the two important levels of 5703/5652 in mind and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.

2.         PCR at 1.23 VIX down at 17.11. Pre-open high/low at 5767.40/5613.60 and close at 5653.40. This may indicate a flat nifty after a slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5646NF TARGET 5621 SL 5676.

4.         SL triggered but wait for (5 tf) candle close.

5.         Target of first -ww was met in the morning.

6.         So far NF crossed SL (5676) 5 times but 5tf candle could not close at/above it.

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap taking global cues but remained flat within a range of about 33 as indicated by the pre-open data. It finally managed to close +ve but below yesterday's close. In the process, it created a third inside candle as stated in the first post. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met soon upon open. Also, though the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered 5 times, 5tf candle could not close above it indicating overall weakness.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (25/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5661, 5642, 5636, 5627 and 5610. Resistances are at about 5672, 5697, 5752 and 5757/60. Three likely +WWs give about 5683/87/95 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5644/24 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on smaller tf with a mast height 142 gives about 5805 unless killed below about 5632 while another with mast height of 185 on daily chart gives much higher level unless killed below about 5605. At the same time, a bearish flag gives about 5647 unless killed above about 5688.

Nifty is consolidating and closed -ve as indicated in the thread for Monday. However, a further upmove is possible soon considering that nifty made a new 52 week high before. The -ve div persists on daily chart though not on weekly chart. Now, a daily close below 5600 will have to be considered to be first sign of weakness. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong. But, since expiry is approaching, trade cautiously and trade in Oct fut/options, if you must.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5930.75/5655 and close at 5674.90. This is the highest pre-open in a long time. Note that most of the previous pre-open high levels have been achieved except for 5737 on 7th Sept and 5802 on 17th Sept. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and if we consider nifty to be in a downtrend after the peak on 21st Sept, then it is a reversal sign and may indicate a +ve nifty after a flat to mildly +ve open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5698NF TARGET 5732/49 SL 5668.

4.         The targets of all the three +WWs met in first 5 min.

5.         SL triggered. Sell above 5682NF Target 5646 SL 5712.

6.         A DT is forming which may give plus/minus about 45 in case of a BO/BD.

7.         The DT finally gave a BO, target 5700NS.

8.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap but reacted immediately thereafter. It then remained flat till about noon before improving a bit to close almost flat but slightly above Monday's close. The targets of all the +WWs mentioned in the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade got triggered but target of reverse trade was not reached. The target of bearish flag mentioned in the first post was almost met. The target of BD of a ST mentioned in the first post of Monday also gave its target. A BO of a DT identified during the day almost gave its target.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (24/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5687, 5681, 5660 and 5588. Resistances are at about 5696/98, 5710 and 5733/38/43. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Four likely -WWs give about 5675, 5645 and 5633/25 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag with a mast height 142 gives about 5808 unless killed below about 5632. At the same time, a bearish flag gives about 5652 unless killed above about 5700.

Nifty broke past all resistances and previous levels in style on Friday. It made a 52 week high with hardly any retail participation. Also, most of this rally seems to be due to short covering and not only buying. This indicates that a further upmove is on cards. However, it may also consolidate here and also try to discount further bad political development, if any, considering that a -ve div has once again appeared on daily chart though not on weekly chart. Now, a daily close below 5600 will have to be considered to be first sign of weakness. Otherwise, it remains a "buy on dips" situation as of now. Liquidity continues to be very strong.

2.         PCR up at 1.25 and VIX up at 18.93. Pre-open high/low at 5733.45/5619.25 and close at 5691.95. The 10tf candle is a Doji and may indicate uncertainty and a flat to mildly -ve nifty.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5742NF TARGET 5685/66 SL 5772. Note that first target is reached. So trade carefully.

4.         Target of first -ww was met. NS is in a small ST with apex at 5692.50. I feel a BD/BO is due soon.

5.         A bearish flag may gve 5660NS.

6.         (post by LKL) Bearish flag almost reached.

7.         Nifty opened flat (though nifty fut opened up with a gap), remained flat and finally went down to close -ve and also below Monday's close as was indicated by pre-open data. The total range was only 46. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met as also the first target of 9.30 strategy trade though, once again, opportunity for entry never came.

A ST identified during the day first gave a false BO but then retreated to give a BD and fell short of its target (5657) by 9, which may come on Tuesday. Similarly, a bearish flag identified during the day fell short of its target by just 3 and may too come on Tuesday.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (20/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5593/89, 5560, 5526 and 5504. Resistances are at about 5682 and 5779. A number of likely +WWs give about 5628/32/40/44 and 5733 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5525 (once below 5570) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent DT gives about 5520 or 5650 in case of a BD/BO.

Nifty future barely managed to close once again above 5612, an important number as per a number theory thereby retaining its bullish sentiment in the short term. Liquidity continues to remain very high. However, nifty is likely to react from present levels to consolidate and discount any bad political fallout. With major global news out of the way, nifty will now be left to discount local news only. A daily close below 5591 will need to be treated with caution but only a daily close below 5515 will ring alarm bells. Otherwise, it is a buy on dips situation as of now.

2.         PCR at 1.17 and VIX at 17.83. Pre-open high/low at 5600.05/5277.40 and close at 5536.95. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate a mildly +ve nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5556NF TARGET 5593.60/5614 SL 5526. Be careful of volatility.

4.         A flag gives 5592NF unless killed below about 5572.

5.         First target of 9.30 strategy met albeit without giving an entry. Previous flag target also reached. A new flag now gives 5583NS unless killed below about 5565.

6.         Nifty opened gap down, managed to go up by about 44 points but then reacted to close mildly +ve (as indicated by the pre-open data) but below yesterday's close. In the process, it made a lower high and lower low than that on Tuesday. The gap created on 17th Sept was filled up in the opening itself. The total range remained about 44 points but the first target of the 9.30 strategy trade was met. The DT stated in the first post did break down in the open.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (18/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5603, 5562/59, 5534 and 5517. Resistances are at about 5624, 5668 and 5738. A likely +ww gives about 5667 (once above 5602) (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5586 (once below 5607) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). There is an apparent ST with apex at 5615 and a BD may give 5586/5567/5528. The daily chart of nifty shows that it is approaching overbought zone.

Nifty has been consistently opening gap up and making new highs thereby giving a bullish sentiment. NF also closed above 5612NF, an important number as per a number theory. Liquidity continues to remain very high. However, nifty is likely to react from present levels to consolidate and discount any bad political development. With major global news out of the way, nifty will now be left to discount local news only. A daily close below 5591 will need to be treated with caution but only a daily close below 5518 will ring alarm bells. Since this is a truncated week, trade with caution. Otherwise, it is a buy on dips situation as of now.

2.         PCR up at 1.14 and VIX up at 17.78. Pre-open high/low at 5610/5500.75 and close at 5602.40. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate a flat to mildly +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5595.35NF TARGET 5571 SL 5625.35. Note that sell is triggered and SL is close by. But be careful as SL may be triggered, overall trend being up. If SL is triggered, by below 5632NF target 5656/66 SL 5602.

4.         SL triggered so also buy. -ww target almost met after open.

5.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap, attempted to go up but failed and went down a bit, finally closing slightly -ve and also below yesterday's close. The range was narrow of about 28 points. The SL of first trade according to 9.30 strategy was triggered. However, the target of reverse trade was not met. In fact, nifty almost went upto its SL. The target of -ww stated in the first post was almost met. Similarly the BD of ST stated in the first post gave its first target. The daily candle is a Doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (17/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5568, 5561 and 5476. Resistances are at about 5588, 5594, 5602, 5619 and 5676. The next higher reference level is 5631. A likely +ww gives about 5600 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5537 (once below 5561) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). The -ve divergence on daily chart of nifty mentioned in Friday's post has vanished. However, it is approaching overbought zone.

Once again nifty opened up with a huge gap and closed above previous high. Now it has to close above 5612NF, an important number as per a number theory, to continue uptrend. Liquidity continues to remain high. However, nifty is likely to react from 5600+ level (5631 was Feb '12 high) as it tries to consolidate and discount any bad political development. With major global news out of the way, nifty will now be left to discount local news only.

2.         PCR at 1.10 and VIX at 15.38. Pre-open high/low at 5802.25/5577.65 and close at 5631.75. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate flat to -ve nifty after gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5674.60 TARGET 5627.50 SL 5704.60. Second target for this strategy is 5608NF.

4.         First target met.

5.         Second target met. I feel it is worth a chance to buy small around 5600NF with 5575NF as SL.

6.         A +ww gives about 5630NS.

7.         +WW target revised to 5646NS but only once above 5606.

8.         A flag give about 5631NS.

9.         Flag target was almost met.

10.       Once again nifty opened up with a big gap, made a higher than that yesterday soon after open but later continued to go down and closed -ve (as indicated by pre-open data) though above yesterday's close. It also made a higher low than that yesterday. Importantly, it made a new high for 2012 and also closed at a new high for 2012.

Both the targets of 9.30 strategy's sell trade were met albeit without giving an entry. The target of the +ww stated in the first post was met upon open itself. Also, the initial target of a +ww and a flag identified during the day were almost met though not the revised target of the same +ww.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/09/12

LEADER POST for Friday (14/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5428/26, 5421, 5373 and 5362. Resistances are at about 5438/41, 5447, 5466 and 5471/75. The next higher reference level is 5500. Three +WWs give about 5442/47, 5481 and 5508 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5392 and 5332 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent rising wedge gives about 5334 in case of a BD. The top of this wedge is about 5466. A flag gives 5447 unless killed below 5427. A -ve divergence seems to be developing on daily chart of nifty.

Once again nifty could neither close above 5454NF, an important number as per one number theory, nor above the psychological level of 5450 spot. The news about fuel price hike in India as well as welcome news from FOMC in US are likely to give further boost to market. However, caution is advised in trading since a fall from present level or higher level is not ruled. Thursday's candle is once again an imperfect evening Doji star, which gives bearish tone. Only a gap up opening followed by a big green candle on Friday can negate it. Liquidity continues to remain high.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5528.40/5258.50 and close at 5528.35. The 10tf candle is a Marubuzo and may indicate a mildly -ve nifty after the huge gap up. This is the fifth time pre-open high is over 5500 in last 2 months. (5536/5578/5737/5645/5528).

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5531NF TARGET 5571.50/5592 SL 5501.

4.         Targets of all the three +WWs met. I wish I had posted +WWs with higher levels also. Flag target also met.

5.         First target met.

6.         Second target of 9.30 strategy (also met). Unfortunately buy level never came.

7.         Once again, nifty opened up with a huge gap taking cue from announcement of QE3 by FED in US and the resultant upbeat global markets. It continued to rise after opening, breaking the previous high of about 5500 made in March '12 and making a new high of about 5586 before finally closing +ve and well above previous close. In the process, all the targets of three +WWs and the flag mentioned in the first post were met. Also, met were targets of 9.30 strategy though nifty never came to levels to enable an entry in trade.

The only time in the last three years that nifty closed with such a huge gap was on 28th Oct '11 after which market had reacted sharply. However, nifty was in a downtrend at that time while now it is in an uptrend.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (13/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5414, 5408, 5399, 5361 and 5322. Resistances are at about 5438/40 and 5478/80 while other previous level to watch is 5449. Two +WWs give about 5472 and 5500 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5350 (once below 5422) and 5345 (once below 5385) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent rising wedge gives about 5334 in case of a BD. A flag promises higher level unless killed below 5410.

Nifty opened gap up on Wednesday and closed +ve as indicated by the bullish sentiment of Tuesday's candle. Also, it closed above 5400 and appears to be headed upwards. However, it did not close above 5252NF, an important number as per one number theory and is yet to close above the psychological level of 5450, above which only heavy short covering and buying will come. Fundamentals being very bad, caution is advised in trading since a fall from present level or slightly higher level is not ruled. Also, Friday (Thursday night) and Monday are major event days and hence caution is advised.

In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. The liquidity flow is massive and, as they say "never fight liquidity".

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 15.04. Pre-open high/low at 5467.10/5423.35 and close at 5435.20. This may indicate a flat to -ve nifty today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5433NF TARGET 5409/5391 SL 5463.

4.         Nifty opened flat as expected, could not make a higher high than yesterday (though NF did), made a higher low, remained in a narrow range of about 25 points and finally closed flat, as was indicated by the pre-open data. The narrow range was expected considering an important event (FOMC) due to unfold tonight in US. With the result, neither the SL nor the target of 9.30 strategy were hit. The day candle is once again an imperfect "evening doji star" implying a possible reversal.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/09/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (12/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5383, 5373, 5363, 5345 and 5306. Resistances are at about 5396/97, 5409 and 5490 while other previous levels to watch are 5399 and 5449. The +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Four likely -WWs give about 5369/59/53/38 (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent rising wedge gives 5362/5334 in case of a BD. Also, the bottom of two channels in which nifty is hovering, is about 5362/5345 and a revisit there is not ruled out.

Although nifty opened gap down on Tuesday, it closed +ve strongly, nullifying the bearish sentiment created by Monday's candle. Also, it finally closed above 5374NS/5405NF and now appears ready for a big upmove. However, fundamentals being very bad, caution is advised in trading since a fall from present level is not ruled. In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. The narrow range of Monday seems to have given a BO as of now.

2.         PCR up at 1.01 VIX at 15.38. Pre-open high/low at 5404.95/5331.10 and close at 5404.45. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and indicates flat to negative market.

3.         Pre-open high/low at 5404.95/5331.10 and close at 5404.45. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and indicates flat to negative market. If SL is hit buy below 5445NF target 5464/78 SL 5415.

4.         A flag may give 5334NF soon.

5.         SL of reverse long trade not hit yet. 5415 was appx. correct value is 5413.90. NF made a low of 5414.70 but SL may be hit due to volatility on account important event today in Germany.

6.         SL hit.

7.         A +ww gives about 5435/40NS while the flag now gives 5442NS.

8.         +ww target met as it was revised down to 5433.

9.         Nifty opened up with a gap taking cue to global markets but remained within a narrow range of about 23 points before making its crucial upmove. However, due to an important event in Germany, the volatility was so high that the SLs of 9.30 strategy calls (first, reverse and reverse again) were triggered. However, the targets of a bullish flag and a +ww identified during the day were met. In the end, the target of last 9.30 strategy was missed, probably due to paucity of time. It made a higher high and a higher low than that yesterday and closed +ve and also above yesterday's close.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (11/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5358/56, 5348, 5342, 5272, 5226 and 5217. Resistances are at about 5368, 5372/74 and 5425 while other previous levels to watch are 5399 and 5449. The +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5332 (once below 5349) and 5322/5308 (once below 5345) (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently).

While nifty spot closed slightly +ve, nifty future closed slightly -ve. But, though nifty spot just managed to cross the level of 5374 mentioned in the thread for Monday, it could not close above it. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent. I feel a revisit to Friday's low is not ruled out. In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. At the same time, a close above 5374NS/5405NF is a must now for continuation of further upmove.

An important aspect to note is that Monday's candle is an imperfect "evening doji star", which is a sign of trend reversal. Hence, Tuesday's candle should be Red and should preferably open below 5358.70 and also close near or below 5343 to confirm the trend reversal. The narrow range of Monday is in indication that a BD/BO is imminent.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 15.27. Pre-open high/low at 5363.45/5263.90 and close at 5336.10. The 10tf candle is a hammer and indicates flat to mildly +ve market.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5355NF TARGET 5319 SL 5385. However, the chart data is different after a long time and hence alternate levels are SELL ABOVE 5339NF TARGET 5319 SL 5369. It is better to take the latter being safer.

4.         A +ww gives 5375NS.

5.         +ww target met. SL triggered. Target of reversed trade of 5400 also almost met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and remained flat for over an hour before making its upmove. It made a higher high and a lower low than that on Monday and closed +ve and also above Monday's close, as hinted by the pre-open candle, thereby probably nullifying bearish signal given by Monday's imperfect evening doji star. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered and the target of the reverse trade was met. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was almost met so was the target of a +ww identified during the day. Nifty closed almost at day's high.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (10/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5353, 5330/28 and 5265. Resistances are at about 5368, 5374 and 5405 while other previous levels to watch are 5399 and 5449. The +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5334 (once below 5347) and 5324/5310 (once below 5343) (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed +ve with a big margin on Friday and then again +ve with a small margin on Saturday giving, in the process, the targets of both +WWs mentioned in the post for Friday. But, though it made a high of about 5366 on Saturday, it could not close above 5360 mentioned over the last 2 days. Also, it has now closed above the previous high on 28th August and I feel it may take some time to consolidate before making the next move.

The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent. I feel Monday may be -ve and a revisit to Friday's low is not ruled out. In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. However, a close above 5374NS/5405NF is a must now for continuation of further upmove. An important aspect to note is that VIX closed at 14.76 on Saturday, it's lowest in at least 2 years.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5644.60/5346.65 and close at 5361.90. THis may indicate a flat to -ve market.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5367NF TARGET 5343/24 SL 5397.

4.         NF reacted from just short of R3 level mentioned on Friday.

5.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap but the high made in the first 5 minutes was never crossed. It made a higher high and a lower low than that on Saturday and closed slightly +ve and also above Saturday's close. However, Nifty Futures closed -ve and also below Saturday's close. The range was very narrow of about 24 points. With the result, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy call was triggered.

Today's candle is an imperfect "evening doji star", which is a sign of trend reversal. Imperfect because the opening was only with a slight gap up. One condition for an evening star is that the candle prior to the star should have low volume. Hence, if the market does indeed go down on Tuesday, the purpose of the special trading on Saturday will be obvious.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. However, please ignore the gap down after about 1pm since it is because the website giving this chart hanged.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/09/12

LEADER POST for Friday (07/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5233, 5222/20, 5210, 5202, 5180 and 5147. Resistances are at about 5251/53/57, 5268 and 5291 while other previous levels to watch are 5277, 5296 and 5332. Two likely +WWs give about 5350 (once above 5245) and 5359 (once above 5270) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). A likely -ww gives about 5228 (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently). An inverted flag gives lower level unless killed above about 5250.

Although nifty closed +ve on Thursday, its likely direction still seems to be a bit down considering that it closed below the psychological level of 5250 on two consecutive days. Wednesday's low is beckoning for a revisit and the long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away. Much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5260, 5291 and then 5360 is a must to imply bullish trend. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to be scarce as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent with a -ve bias. I feel Friday may be +ve but a revisit to Wednesday's low of about 5215 or even slightly lower levels is not ruled out.

2.         PCR at 0.94 and VIX at 16.98. Pre-open high/low at 5736.90/5238.40 and close at 5309.45. This is the highest pre-open in a long time. This may indicate a flat to -ve market after a big gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5342.50NF TARGET 5370/87 SL 5312.50.

4.         A number of -WWs give about 5320, 5317 and 5280 but I can't say when they will come.

5.         First -ww target met. Second -ww target met.

6.         NF is above R2 only and I feel it has scope to go to R3.

7.         Nifty opened up with a big gap taking cue from global markets and continued to inch up, finally closing +ve and well above Thursday's close. The target of first +ww mentioned in the first post was almost met. However, the target of 9.30 strategy trade was missed by a small margin. The targets of two -WWs identified during the day were also met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (06/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5213, 5206, 5189 and 5162. Resistance is at about 5250 while other previous levels to watch are 5296 and 5352. Two likely +WWs give about 5347 (once above 5248) and 5355 (once above 5300) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned). -WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently. An inverted flag gives about 5200 unless killed above about 5241.

Nifty's likely direction still seems to be down. The long time resistance zone of 5170-90 is not far away and much lower levels are possible if global and domestic news becomes worse. On the upper side, a daily close above 5296 and then 5360 is a must to imply bullish trend. Liquidity is the only hope that will support market but seems to be scarce as of now. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent with a -ve bias. I feel Thursday may be mildly +ve with revisit of Wednesday's low or lower levels may come later.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5258.50/5176.45 and close at 5217.65. This may indicate a flat to +ve market. PCR at 0.90 and VIX at 17.01.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5255.50NF TARGET 5277/97 SL 5225.50.

4.         Nifty seems to be in a DT on the verge of a BO.

5.         (9.30 strategy) Target met.

6.         I think nifty is in a rising wedge and may fall to 5220 is breaks down.

7.         A -WW gives 5230NS not much away from 5220 of wedge BD.

8.         -ww target met.

9.         An inverted flag gives lower levels unless killed above 5250.

10.       Nifty opened down with a small gap as expected but remained flat till afternoon before making an upmove. It made a slightly higher high than yesterday but also made a lower low. It could not sustain at higher level and finally managed to close +ve and also above yesterday's close as indicated by the pre-open data. In the process, it met the target of 9.30 strategy's long trade.

A Descending Triangle (DT) identified during the day gave its target upon Break Out (BO). A -WW identified later also gave its target. The Break Down of a rising wedge (or channel depending upon how it is drawn) identified in the afternoon reached just 10 short of its target and may reach the target tmrw.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.