Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/11/12

LEADER POST for Friday (30/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5795, 5690 and 5660 while resistance is at about 5850. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5780 (once below 5810), 5765 and 5740 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives much higher level unless killed below 5625.

Nifty closed above 5800 and the daily candle is also a Marubuzo, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. However, -ve div is seen on both daily and weekly charts. If nifty goes below 5757, it will be worrisome while a close below 5690 may be bad. I feel it may react a bit to consolidate and will be ideal for a "buy on dips" situation. Much higher targets are expected. Tomorrow's candle is important as it will be a daily, weekly and monthly candle.

2.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5908NF, TARGET 5935, SL 5878.

3.         SL hit. Sell above 5878NF target 5847/39 SL 5908. But wait to see whether 5tf closes below 5878. It did not in this candle.

4.         SL hit.

5.         SL (of reverse trade) hit again.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap and went down a bit but failed to fill the gap and then took off to make a higher high and low than that yesterday to close +ve and also above yesterday's low. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit as also the SL of reverse trade. However, neither side target was met. The daily candle is once again a Marubuzo thereby forming three white soldiers. However, the nifty fut candle is NOT a Marubuzo thereby indicating a possible Advance Block pattern, which indicates a likely reversal.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/11/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (29/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5709/06, 5663 and 5630 while resistances are at about 5731/35, and 5745/50. A likely +WW gives about 5776 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while two likely -WWs give about 5696 (once below 5716) and 5610 (once below 5755, which is not reached yet) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). The break out of a falling channel mentioned some days ago seems to be giving its target of 5751/5776. A bullish flag gives much higher level unless killed below 5655.

Nifty closed above 5700 and the daily candle is also a Marubuzo, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. But it also faced resistance below 5740 and closed below 5730. A close below 5650 once again and particularly below 5600 may take it down further to as low as 5400. Nifty now needs to close above 5788 and also cross 5815 to continue its bullish trend.

2.         PCR up at 1.17 which is not good for bulls but VIX down at 13.96.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5739NF, TARGET 5778/5813, SL 5709.

4.         Target (5776) of falling channel BO, +ww and bullish flag met.

5.         First 9.30 strategy target met without giving an entry.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap and never looked back. It bulldozed past all resistance to make a new 19 month high and also close at a new 19 month high. In the process, targets of the +ww, falling channel, bullish flag and the 9.30 strategy trade were met. The daily candle is once again a Marubuzo.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/11/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (27/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5631, 5626, 5614 and 5609 while resistances are at about 5634, 5643 and 5658. Three likely +WWs give about 5656, 5669 and 5684 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5616 (once below 5653, which is not reached yet), 5605 and 5585 (once below 5659) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives higher level unless killed below 5613.

Nifty closed above 5630 once again. What's more, it made a higher high and low than those on Friday. But, the daily candle is an imperfect hanging man, which is a bearish sign and hence trade carefully, particularly because this is an expiry week. A close below 5600 once again and particularly below 5550 may take it down further to as low as 5400. Nifty now needs to close above 5667 to maintain a bullish tone.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5659.85/5617.45 and close at 5658.50. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         Note that 5657.65NF was last week's high. A open above that will please the bulls.

4.         Target of first two +WWs and bullish flag met.

5.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5654NF, TARGET 5700/19 SL 5624.

6.         Target of third +ww also met.

7.         Target of 9.30 strategy met without giving an entry.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap and never looked back. It not only made a new high but also closed strongly at a recent new high. It thus closed +ve as indicated by the pre-open data and also above yesterday's close. In the process, the targets of all the three +WWs and the bullish flag of the first post were met. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy trade but without giving an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/11/12

LEADER POST for Monday (26/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5600, 5588, 5577 and 5533 while resistances are at about 5630 and 5653. Four likely +WWs give about 5641, 5666, 5676 and 5684 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5599 (once below 5611), 5597 (once below 5653, which is not reached yet) and 5552 (once below 5617) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives higher evel unless killed below 5608.

Nifty closed above 5600 once again but below 5630. What's more, it made a lower high and low than those on Thursday. Also, the daily candle is a hanging man, which is a bearish sign and hence trade carefully. A close below 5600 once again and particularly below 5550 may take it down further to as low as 5400. Nifty now needs to close above 5660 to maintain a bullish tone.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 14.68. Pre-open high/low at 5728.20/5626.60 and close at 5648.65. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate flat/-ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5632NF TARGET 5608 SL 5662.

4.         Target of first +ww and bullish flag met at open.

5.         Today's gap filled.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and made a higher high and low than those on Friday but closed -ve as, indicated by the pre-open data, though above Friday's close. Nifty filled up the gap created today. However, nifty fut did not make a higher high. The targets of first +ww and the bullish flag of the first post were met but the target 9.30 strategy trade was not met nor was its SL triggered. The total range was narrow at about 25 being an expiry week.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/11/12

LEADER POST for Friday (23/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5619 and 5547 while resistances are at about 5634, 5645 and 5693. Two likely +WWs give about 5646 and 5662 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5620, 5613, 5595 and 5564 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel mentioned a few days ago seems to have broken out and can give about 5750/75 unless nifty goes below 5534 again.

Nifty closed above 5600 once again. What's more, it just crossed 5643 before closing below 5630. Thus it is placed at a crucial break out stage though still in the resistance zone below 5643 and a daily and weekly close above 5660 can only be bullish for next week. However, a close below 5600 once again and particularly below 5550 may take it down further to as low as 5400.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 14.91. Pre-open high/low at 5643.30/5615.45 and close at 5635.45. This may indicate mildly +ve market after a slight gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5634NF TARGET 5604/5585 SL 5664.

4.         Target of first -ww met.

5.         Second -ww target met.

6.         Target of third -ww met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but quickly reacted to make a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and just below yesterday's close. The total range was about 40. The targets of first three -WWs and that of 9.30 strategy trade were met. The daily candle is a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/11/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (22/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5596, 5577 and 5548 while resistances are at about 5627 and 5652. Two likely +WWs give about 5660 and 5751 (once above 5650) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5599, 5586 (once below 5599), 5571 (once below 5596) and 5550 (once below 5600) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel mentioned yesterday seems to have broken out and can give about 5750/75 unless nifty goes below 5557 again.

Nifty finally closed above 5600 again after some down day but is not out of the woods yet. Nifty should take out the resistance zone of 5633-5643 first, above which it could be bullish. However, a daily close below 5520 may take it down further to as low as 5400.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 15.46. Pre-open high/low at 5648.05/5614.45 and close at 5628.60. It may indicate an uncertain nifty after a gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5646NF TARGET 5669/90 SL 5616.

4.         A +ww gives 5630.

5.         SL of 9.30 strategy is hit. Now sell above 5611NF target 5584 SL 5641.

6.         +ww target mentioned above met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and made a higher high and low than those yesterday. But it remained within a 35 point range, finally closing flat. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The target of a +ww identified during the day was met. The daily candle is an imperfect evening doji star. However, the same is not true with nifty fut candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/11/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (21/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5558, 5548/44, 5533/29, 5514 and 5500 while resistances are at about 5578, 5591, 5617 and 5635. A number of likely +WWs give about 5579, 5615, 5655/58 and 5715 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5564 and 5516 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give about 5750/75 in case of a BO above 5588. A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 5559.

Nifty closed below 5600 once again and the overall mood seems to be very bearish. However, it seems to have made a double bottom with yesterday's low. Also, Tuesday's candle is an "outside" bar and, if Tuesday's lower low was fake then with oversold Stochastic, it can give a reversal. In such a case, nifty should take out the resistance zone of 5633-5643 first. However, a daily close below 5520 may take it down further to as low as 5400.

2.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 15.81. Pre-open high/low at 5582.55/5570.90 and close at 5582.50. 10tf candle is the smallest so far but it's a Morubuzo and may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5579NF, TARGET 5548/28 SL 5609.

4.         Target of first +ww and -ww met.

5.         Target of bullish flag of the first post met.

6.         Forgot to mention that SL of 9.30 strategy was hit after 10.20 and target of reverse trade is 5632NF.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, went down a bit before rising. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve, as was indicated by pre-open data, and also above yesterday's close. In the process the targets of first two +WWs, first -WW and the bullish flag of the first post were met. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of the reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.