Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (31/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5589, 5580, 5566 and 5533 while the resistances are at about 5603, 5612, 5674, 5682 and 5693. Three likely +WWs give about 5632, 5689 and 5719 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). One likely -WW gives about 5562 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed below 34 ema and is expected to take support at 55 ema, which is at about 5542. Nifty also broke down from the narrow range it was in for many days. While it is possible that it may revisit 5432, which is the gap created on 13/14 Sept, it may have a few surprises up its sleeve and hence one must trade with proper SLs. To begin with, nifty now needs to close above 5680 to give hopes of an uptrend.

2.         PCR down at 1.03 and VIX at 15.17. Pre-open high/low at 5606.10/5573 and close at 5596.75. This may indicate a flat to +ve nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5609NF, TARGET 5587/73 SL 5639.

4.         IF SL IS HIT, BUY BELOW 5648, TARGET 5671/87 SL 5618.

5.         SL HIT.

6.         Nifty opened flat, went down to make lower low and then rose to close +ve and also above yesterday's close as was suggested by the pre-open data. The total range was about 41. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (29/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5644, 5630 and 5609 while the resistances are at about 5680, 5701 and 5717. A number of likely +WWs give about 5675, 5688, 5700, 5706 and 5743 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while one likely -WW gives about 5576 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

The daily candle is a doji, which seems to imply that nifty is on the verge of a BO/BD. Nifty has remained in a narrow channel with height of about 85 since 8th Oct and a BO/BD is overdue. It needs to close above 5730 to continue the uptrend while a daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. RBI policy review on Tuesday will mean likelyhood of a high volatility and hence trade carefully.

2.         PCR at 1.1 and VIX at 15.12. Pre-open high/low at 5665.60/5578.10 and close at 5656.35. This may indicate an uncertain nifty after a flat opening, perhaps a -ve nifty.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5676NF, TARGET 5652 SL 5706.

4.         IF SL IS HIT, BUY BELOW 5713NF, TARGET 5738/48, SL 5683.

5.         SL hit. Target of first +ww met.

6.         Target of second +ww also met. Now to see whether target of -ww will be met.

7.         SL of 9.30 strategy hit again.

8.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap, tried to go up but the moment credit policy was announced, it tanked and could not recover. It closed -ve and also below yesterday's close as suggested by the pre-open data. In the process it gave targets of two +WWs of the first post. The SLs of 9.30 strategy and its reverse trade were hit and finally the target of original trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Nifty-Long Term Monthly Chart

The attached nifty monthly chart displays interesting scenario. Long term supports are seen at about 5000 and 3250 as of now (the lower TLs). But, a -WW gives about 4050 once point 5, which is at about 6300+, is reached. I feel that nifty may make a new high before reacting. Once it crosses below the upper TL, a long term short entry can be taken for the -WW target. The chart also shows a +WW whose targets have been met twice but can give about 5900 too. I have taken the liberty to ignore the possibility that point 3 may not be above point 1.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (29/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5630 and 5641/39 while the resistances are at about 5671, 5677, 5708 and 5715. A number of likely +WWs give about 5672, 5697/5704 and 5729/31 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while one likely -WW gives about 5590 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

The daily candle is an imperfect hammer while the weekly candle is once again an inside bar, which indicates that there could be a break out if nifty goes above 5752. Nifty has remained in a narrow channel with height of about 85 since 8th Oct and a BO/BD is overdue. It needs to close above 5730 to continue the uptrend while a daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5666.30/5636.05 and close at 5665.20. The 10tf candle is a long legged doji and may indicate a +ve nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5722, TARGET 5751/67 SL 5692.

4.         Targets of first two +WWs already met in the morning.

5.         SL triggered. NOW SELL ABOVE 5697 TARGET 5665 SL 5727.

6.         I think nifty may not give lower target and may actually go up. One can take a chance and buy half qty now and another half if it goes down further a bit.

7.         Nifty opened slightly up, made a higher high and low than those on Friday but finally closed flat and slightly above Friday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met but the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered. However, target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is a doji implying that it may be ready for a BO/BD.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (26/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5688 and 5627 while the resistances are at about 5714, 5718 and 5722. Two likely +WWs give about 5733 and 5767 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5653 and 5611 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

The daily candle is once again an inside bar. Nifty has remained in a narrow range for too long and has to break out or down soon. It needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend while a daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 1.02 and VIX at 13.52. Pre-open high/low at 5704.60/5670.40 and close at 5681.85. This may indicate a flat nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5723, TARGET 5754/72 SL 5693.

4.         IF SL IS HIT, SELL ABOVE 5699 TARGET 5668/65 SL 5729.

5.         Yesterday NF made a high at magic no. of 5757 but did not cross it. So short term trend may be down.

6.         Target of first -ww met.

7.         Nifty opened gap down and kept on going down. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday and finally closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. The SL of 9.30 strategy triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is an imperfect hammer while the weekly candle is an inside doji bar once again.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (25/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5684, 5678, 5661 and 5657 while the resistances are at about 5712, 5722 and 5733. Three likely +WWs give about 5698, 5714 and 5734 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5684 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A DT seems to have broken out and can give 5800+ if nifty doesn't go below 5634.

The daily candle is a bearish inside bar. Nifty needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. Thursday being expiry day, trade carefully. Otherwise trade in Nov series fut/options.

2.         Considering the inside bar candle of Tuesday, buy > 5722NS and sell < 5658 (risky sell < 5681). Unfortunately nifty may remain within this range and hence no trade unless you are carrying a trade overnight. In that case, I feel one should cover longs at about 5700 and shorts at about 5660. Best gamble may be to buy 5700pe below 5, which could come after 1.30 pm since I feel expiry may be around 5675.

3.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 13.71. Pre-open high/low at 5702.85/5667.95 and close at 5688.80. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate an uncertain and volatile nifty after a flattish opening.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5707, TARGET 5730/44 SL 5677.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, went up a bit and then reacted sharply before recovering again. However, in spite of being an expiry day, total range was only about 31. The target of first +ww of the first post was met but neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was met. The daily candle is once again an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (23/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5711, 5693, 5669 and 5627 while the resistances are at about 5726 and 5784. Three likely +WWs give about 5726, 5739 and 5758 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5703, 5684 and 5638 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A DT seems to have broken out and can give 5800+ if nifty doesn't go below 5634.

The daily candle is a bullish engulfing one. What's more, it seems to have formed a "Last engulfing Bottom", which is bullish, though it is not exactly at the bottom of a downtrend. Hence bulls still seem to be in some control.

Nifty closed above 5713 but needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. Expiry being 2 days away, trade carefully. Otherwise trade in Nov series fut/options.

2.         PCR up at 1.03 and VIX down at 13.04. Pre-open high/low at 5777.90/5713.85 and close at 5715.65. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer (topping tail) and may indicate a flat to -ve nifty after a flat opening, accompanied by volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5694, TARGET 5672/56 SL 5724. BE CAREFUL AS SL MAY BE HIT DUE TO VOLATILITY. BEST TO ENTER CLOSER TO SL THAN USUAL 30 DIFFERENCE.

4.         Target of first -ww of first post met.

5.         Target of second -ww considered met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, barely made a lower high and higher low than those yesterday but closed -ve and also below yesterday's close as was indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met. However, target of 9.30 strategy trade was not met. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.