Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/08/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (07/08/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5500 and 5415 while resistances are at about 5578, 5595, 5641 and 5785. The weekly TL is at about 5407 while the 100/200 wma are at about 5461/5438. Four +WWs can give about 5609 (once above 5569) and 5704/5711/ 5765 (once above 5608) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three falling wedges/channels BO can give about 5695/5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5640.

Nifty closed below 5550 for the first time since 12/04 and is scarily bearish, particularly noting that VIX made a 52 week high. However, a +ve div persists on lower TFs and mild recovery is likely. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5630. A weekly close below 5625 can cause further fall. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to -ve nifty after a slight gap up open unless it remains above 5550 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5579NF, TARGET 5536, SL 5609.

4.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy missed by about 8 points.

6.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap and quickly reacted to make a lower low. Then it rose sharply in the afternoon but that was short lived. Finally it closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met without giving chance of an entry. Entry was available late in the day but target was missed by about 8 points.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/08/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (06/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5659, 5627 and 5575 while resistances are at about 5748, 5812 and 5840. A number of +WWs can give about 5725/5793 (once above 5673), 5730/5777/5875 (once above 5625), 5815 (once above 5650) and 5818 (once above 5656) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5532 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedges/channel BO can give about 5805/6045 if nifty remains above 5680.

Nifty closed below 5700 again and is still clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is still seen on lower TFs. Also, daily candle is a "low price" Harami cross and a reversal is likely. Also, Monday was a NR7 day and hence Tuesday may see a big move either way. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5870. If support levels given above are breached or if RSI on daily chart goes below 37, much lower levels are likely. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a volatile but +ve nifty after a gap down open unless it remains below 5664 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5685NF, TARGET 5645, SL 5715.

4.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

5.         Target of -ww of the first post was met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a gap and kept sliding. The fall accelerated in the afternoon. Nifty thus made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also strongly below yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The target of -ww of the first post was also met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/08/13

LEADER POST for Monday (05/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5643, 5607 and 5559 while resistances are at about 5711, 5728, 5749, 5808 and 5837. Previous low is at 5566. A number of +WWs can give about 5703, 5759 (once above 5692), 5755/5779/5817 (once above 5674), 5809 (once above 5645) and 5812 (once above 5655) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5532 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedges/channel BO can give about 5805/6045 if nifty goes and remains above 5685/5700.

Nifty fell again and closed below 5700 for the first time since 27/06 and is clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs and some recovery is likely. Higher levels are possible only if nifty closes above 5870. If support levels given above are breached or if RSI on daily chart goes below 37, much lower levels are likely. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         PCR down at 0.99 and VIX up at 20.89. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to +ve nifty after a flattish open unless it remains below 5682 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5715NF, TARGET 5677, SL 5745.

4.         If SL is hit, by below 5724NF, target 5763, SL 5694.

5.         SL hit.

6.         Target of first +ww of the first post met.

7.         Target of reverse trade considered met but without giving chance of an entry.

8.         Nifty opened flattish but remained in a range of about 60. It made a lower high and a higher low than those on Friday before closing slightly +ve and also slightly above Friday's close. Target of first +ww of the first post was met. But the SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was considered met as it was missed by a fraction. However, chance of an entry was not possible. Daily candle is a "low price" harami cross and it was a NR7 day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-02/08/13

LEADER POST for Friday (02/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5676, 5650 and 5610 while resistances are at about 5754, 5781, 5807 and 5950. Four +WWs can give about 5812 (once above 5665), 5879 (once above 5719), 5906 (once above 5664) and 5924 (once above 5846) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5555 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge/channel break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5740.

Nifty fell sharply in spite of a gap up open and closed below 5750 again and is clearly bearish. Monthly chart is bearish showing -ve div. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Higher levels are possible only if nifty gives a weekly close above 5805. A close below 5715 can result in much lower levels as weekly support lies at 5600. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5750 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5778NF, TARGET 5735, SL 5808.

4.         Target met without getting chance of an entry.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but started sliding. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. Target of 9.30 strategy was met without giving chance of an entry.

The week’s chart shows likelihood of much lower levels possible if 5600 is breached strongly.

The intraday and week’s charts of nifty spot values with 5 min candles are shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/08/13

LEADER POST for Thursday (01/08/13)

1.         Support is at about 5726 and 5703 while resistances are at about 5758, 5807 and 5950. Three +WWs can give about 5859 (once above 5791), 5923 (once above 5850) and 5957 (once above 5874) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5577 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge/channel break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5778.

Nifty recovered after a gap down but could not above 5750 and is clearly very bearish. Monthly chart is bearish showing -ve div. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Also, daily candle is a hammer cum long legged doji cum imperfect morning doji star, a likely reversal sign. To confirm reversal, nifty must close on Thursday well above 5755, preferably above 5796, preferably after a gap up open. Higher levels are possible only if it closes above 5900. A close below 5723 can result in much lower levels as weekly support lies at 5612/5548. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a +ve nifty after a gap up open unless it remains below 5777 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5800NF, TARGET 5842, SL 5770.

4.         SL hit.

5.         Since SL is hit, sell above 5799NF, target 5755, SL 5829.

6.         Target of reverse trade met without giving chance of an entry.

7.         Earlier, target of original trade was missed by just 1 point.

8.         Target of reverse trade was met after getting an entry.

9.         Nifty opened gap up, rose further to make a higher high but reacted sharply thereafter thanks to problems on NSEL exchange. It barely managed to make a higher low than yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. Volatility was so high that SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit after its target was missed by only 1 point, then target of reverse trade was met without giving chance of an entry and then again it was met after giving a good entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/07/13

LEADER POST for Wednesday (31/07/13)

1.         Support is at about 5723 while resistances are at about 5802, 5817, 5869 and 5950. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5682. Four +WWs can give about 5859 (once above 5791), 5917 (once above 5849), 5954 (once above 5879) and 5977 (once above 5794) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5577 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge/channel break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5800.

Nifty fell again and closed below 5800 and is clearly very bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Support exists at about 5750 and some recovery is possible as nifty has fallen for five straight days but higher levels are possible only if it closes above 5900. A close below 5723 can result in much lower levels as weekly support lies at 5612/5548. Wednesday's close is important as it will be a monthly close. Oil price and/or INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall. Fed policy being on 31/07, trade carefully.

2.         Pre-open data suggests a -ve nifty after a small gap down open unless it remains above 5739 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5796NF, TARGET 5736, SL 5826.

4.         Target met without giving chance of an entry.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, fell further to make a lower low but rose sharply later in the day to close slightly +ve but below yesterday's close. The target of 9.30 strategy was met but without giving chance of an entry. The daily candle is a long legged doji cum hammer cum imperfect morning star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/07/13

LEADER POST for Tuesday (30/07/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5797, 5789 and 5728 while resistances are at about 5856, 5923, 5950, 5983 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5750 and 5630. However, 50wma is at about 5803 and nifty may take support around that level. Four +WWs can give about 5949 (once above 5828), 5952 (once above 5884), 6016 (once above 5950) and 6044 (once above 5939) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5776 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5850.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap down open and closed below 5850 and, particularly, below 200dma, which is clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Also, an imperfect morning star has formed in daily candle. To satisfy this likely bullish sign, nifty must close well above 5900 on Tuesday, preferably with a gap up open. About 5800 can be the SL for longs while about 5950 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A close below 5800 can result in much lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall. Tuesday being the RBI policy review and Fed policy being on 31/07, trade carefully.

2.         PCR flat at 1.0 and VIX up at 18.25. Pre-open data suggests an uncertain to +ve nifty after a slightly gap up open unless it remains below 5836 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5866NF, TARGET 5839, SL 5896.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5900NF, target 5927, SL 5870.

5.         SL hit.

6.         SL of reverse trade also hit.

7.         Target of original trade met.

8.         Target of -ww of the first post met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap and rose a bit before tanking after RBI policy review to make a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing strongly -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process previous lower gap at 5816 was filled. The target of -ww of the first post was met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trades were hit on either side before giving the original target.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.