Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/11/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (22/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5596, 5577 and 5548 while resistances are at about 5627 and 5652. Two likely +WWs give about 5660 and 5751 (once above 5650) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5599, 5586 (once below 5599), 5571 (once below 5596) and 5550 (once below 5600) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling channel mentioned yesterday seems to have broken out and can give about 5750/75 unless nifty goes below 5557 again.

Nifty finally closed above 5600 again after some down day but is not out of the woods yet. Nifty should take out the resistance zone of 5633-5643 first, above which it could be bullish. However, a daily close below 5520 may take it down further to as low as 5400.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 15.46. Pre-open high/low at 5648.05/5614.45 and close at 5628.60. It may indicate an uncertain nifty after a gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5646NF TARGET 5669/90 SL 5616.

4.         A +ww gives 5630.

5.         SL of 9.30 strategy is hit. Now sell above 5611NF target 5584 SL 5641.

6.         +ww target mentioned above met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and made a higher high and low than those yesterday. But it remained within a 35 point range, finally closing flat. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The target of a +ww identified during the day was met. The daily candle is an imperfect evening doji star. However, the same is not true with nifty fut candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/11/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (21/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5558, 5548/44, 5533/29, 5514 and 5500 while resistances are at about 5578, 5591, 5617 and 5635. A number of likely +WWs give about 5579, 5615, 5655/58 and 5715 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5564 and 5516 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give about 5750/75 in case of a BO above 5588. A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 5559.

Nifty closed below 5600 once again and the overall mood seems to be very bearish. However, it seems to have made a double bottom with yesterday's low. Also, Tuesday's candle is an "outside" bar and, if Tuesday's lower low was fake then with oversold Stochastic, it can give a reversal. In such a case, nifty should take out the resistance zone of 5633-5643 first. However, a daily close below 5520 may take it down further to as low as 5400.

2.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 15.81. Pre-open high/low at 5582.55/5570.90 and close at 5582.50. 10tf candle is the smallest so far but it's a Morubuzo and may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5579NF, TARGET 5548/28 SL 5609.

4.         Target of first +ww and -ww met.

5.         Target of bullish flag of the first post met.

6.         Forgot to mention that SL of 9.30 strategy was hit after 10.20 and target of reverse trade is 5632NF.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, went down a bit before rising. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing +ve, as was indicated by pre-open data, and also above yesterday's close. In the process the targets of first two +WWs, first -WW and the bullish flag of the first post were met. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of the reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/11/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (20/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5544, 5538, 5526, 5516 and 5501 while resistances are at about 5574, 5610, 5639 and 5656. Four likely +WWs give about 5594, 5600, 5636 and 5655 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give 5750 in case of a BO above 5616. A bearish flag can give much lower level unless killed above 5615.

Nifty closed below 5600 once again and the overall mood seems to be very bearish. However, the rate of fall is reduced a great deal. Nifty can reverse soon if 5520 is respected since short term trend is still bullish. To give sign of a possible reversal, nifty should take out the resistance zone of 5633-5643. A daily close below 5520 may take it down further to as low as 5400.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 16.68.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5594NF, TARGET 5569/54 SL 5624.

4.         Targets of first two +WWs met in the open itself.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap, made a higher high than yesterday but then reacted to make a lower low before recovering a bit. However, it closed -ve but same as yesterday's close. In the process, the targets of first wo +WWs of the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. It seems to have made a double bottom with yesterday. The daily candle is an "outside bar".

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. The initial portion till 10 am is not visible due to web problem.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/11/12

LEADER POST for Monday (19/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5558, 5544 and 5516 while Resistances are at about 5640 and 5659. Four likely +WWs give about 5652 (once above 5599), 5711 (once above 5616), 5729 (once above 5656) and 5762 (once above 5652) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A falling channel can give 5750 in case of a BO above 5669.

Nifty closed below 5600 and the overall mood seems to be very bearish. But, nifty can reverse soon if 5520 is respected since short term trend is still bullish. To give sign of a possible reversal, nifty should first take out the resistance zone of 5633-5643 and then close well above 5667. A daily close below 5520 may take it down further to as low as 5400.

2.         PCR down at 0.98 while VIX up at 16.22. Pre-open high/low at 5577.30/5477.05 and close at 5577.30. The 10tf candle is a long legged hammer and may indicate a +ve nifty after a flattish open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5601NF, TARGET 5630 SL 5571.

4.         IF SL HIT, SELL ABOVE 5577, TARGET 5546 SL 5607.

5.         Nifty opened flattish, made an attempt to go up but couldn't and made a lower low than that on Friday. However, it recovered late in the day to close slightly -ve and also below Friday's close. However, nifty future closed slightly +ve and also above Friday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met. The total range was about 43. The daily candle is a Doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/11/12

LEADER POST for Friday (16/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5626, 5604, 5586 and 5580 while Resistances are at about 5644, 5682 and 5690. Three likely +WWs give about 5719, 5726 and 5736 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5622 and 5605 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty managed to close above 5630 but below 34 ema and the overall mood seems to be bearish. The daily candle is a hammer, which is a possible sign of reversal. To give sign of a possible reversal, nifty should preferably open gap up on Friday i.e. above 5651, thereby taking out resistance zone of 5633-5643, and also close well above 5667. A daily close below 5630 and then 5580 may take it down further.

2.         PCR down at 1.01 and VIX up at 15.53. Pre-open high/low at 5689.85/5582.40 and close at 5624.80. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate an uncertain market after a slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5630NF, TARGET 5605 SL 5660.

4.         IF SL IS HIT, BUY BELOW 5665NF, TARGET 5690 SL 5630.

5.         Target of first -ww met.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy trade hit.

7.         A bearish flag gives 5693 unless killed above 5638.

8.         Target of second -ww met. Target of bearish flag met.

9.         Target of 9.30 strategy trade met.

10.       Nifty opened down with a small gap, remained flat within a range of about 25 till afternoon before suddenly tanking. The targets of both the -WWs of the first post were met. Also met was target of a bearish flag identified in the afternoon. Nifty made a lower high and low than those yesterday (but nifty fut made a higher high) before finally closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. In view of different behaviour of nifty fut, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was first hit and then SL of reverse trade was also hit and then target of the original trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/11/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (15/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5663, 5657 and 5652 while Resistances are at about 5704, 5710 and 5735. Four likely +WWs give about 5712, 5716, 5745 and 5814 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while a likely -WW gives about 5650 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag gives lower levels unless killed above about 5693.

Nifty closed below 5680 but may be ignored as it was a very short term trade. Nifty can find support at 34 ema intraday which is placed at about 5650 in case it goes down. Crossing above 5816 and daily close above 5788 is necessary for hope of a clear break out. A daily close below 5630 may take it down further. This being a truncated week, trade carefully as global cues can result in gap up/down opening after holidays.

2.         PCR 1.07 and VIX 14.91. Looking at pre-open O/H/L/C, which is not accurate, it gives an impression that we may see a flat to mildly -ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5639NF, TARGET 5612/5599, SL 5669.

4.         Target of -ww and the bearish flag of the first post met.

5.         A +ww and a bullish flag both give 5630.

6.         +ww and flag target met.

7.         Nifty opened down with a gap and continued to go down, making a lower high and a lower low than those on Tuesday before recovering a bit to close -ve (as was indicated by pre-open data) and also below Tuesday's close. The targets of -ww and the bearish flag of the first post were met but the target of 9.30 strategy trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. The initial portion is missing due to problem with the website.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/11/12

LEADER POST for Monday (12/11/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5672 and 5615 while Resistances are at about 5711, 5733, 5748 and 5768. Five likely +WWs give about 5731, 5771, 5783, 5804 and 5814 (once above 5743) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5675, 5662 and 5657 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag gives lower levels unless killed above about 5720.

Nifty reacted once again creating doubts about its future trend. The only consolation is that the day and the week closed above 5680, which gives hopes that an upmove is not ruled out. Nifty can find support at 34 ema intraday which is placed at about 5645 if it goes down. The weekly candle is an inverted hammer. Crossing above 5816 and daily close above 5788 is necessary for hope of a clear break out. A daily close below 5680 may take it down further.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5749.50/5660.65 and close at 5688.45. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate an uncertain nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5734NF, TARGET 5760/71 SL 5704.

4.         SL triggered but 5tf has not closed below 5704 yet though it may in which case, Sell above 5703NF, target 5674 SL 5733.

5.         Twice it crossed 5704 but 5tf did not close and it went up. If you didn't cover your longs, hold them.

6.         Target of first -ww of the first post met.

7.         (post by LLK) SL triggered & ......

8.         Nifty opened flat, failed to go up and reacted to close flat but below Friday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. Nifty once again closed above 5680 and the daily candle is an imperfect morning doji star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.