Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (15/10/12)

1.         The supports are closely spaced at about 5671, 5668, 5664, 5661, 5611 and 5558. Resistances are at about 5710, 5723, 5732 and 5772. A number of likely +WWs give about 5686/5706 (once above 5669), 5702 (once above 5684), 5729 (once above 5670), 5735 (once above 5632) and 5760 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5655 (once below 5732, not reached yet) and 5635 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty is near the bottom of a rising channel, which may give about 5000 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5930. A rising wedge can give about 5537 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5846. A falling wedge can give about 5815 unless nifty crosses and remains below about 5600.

The daily candle of nifty is a Doji and may imply temporary reversal to uptrend. The weekly candle does not give convincing confirmation of a weekly evening star. 5630-40 and 5725-35 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above 5788, a weekly close above 5747 and an intraday high above 5816. A daily close below 5630 may take it it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 16.49. Pre-open high/low at 5699.80/5663.15 and close at 5674.25. The 10tf candle is a Doji and may indicate a flat market marked with volatility, which is possible due to important event/results today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5678NF, TARGET 5644/24 SL 5708.

4.         SL hit, now buy below 5695NF target 5730 SL 5665.

5.         Targets of first +ww and first -ww met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, made a lower high & low than that yesterday but closed +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and -ww were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (12/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5703, 5656, 5646, 5624 and 5582. Resistances are at about 5711, 5720/23, 5728, 5772 and 5812. A likely +WW gives about 5757 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four small -WWs give about 5695 (once below 5715), 5668 (once below 5682), 5664 (once below 5676) and 5638 (once below 5666) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A mild +ve div has developed on daily chart.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and now threatens to give about 5000 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5871. Also, a rising wedge too seems to have broken down and can give about 5542 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5871. A falling wedges also seems to have broken out and can give about 5815 unless nifty crosses and remains below about 5615. A 74 high bullish flag promises higher levels unless killed below 5669.

Nifty gave a surprise on Thursday and rose sharply to close +ve. However, it neither opened above 5672 nor closed above 5709 as mentioned in the post for Thursday. The daily candle, therefore, still does not give confidence about continuation of uptrend. 5630-40 and 5725-35 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give clear indication of short term trend. If Friday closes well below 5691, weekly evening star gets confirmed and bearish undertone may continue.

2.         PCR at 1.00 and VIX at 16.49. Pre-open high/low at 5842.60/5650.95 and close at 5681.70. This indicates a flat to mildly +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         Targets of first two -WWs met in open itself.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5702NF, TARGET 5675/58 SL 5732.

5.         if SL is hit buy below 5734NF target 5760/68 SL 5704.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but made a higher high (though nifty fut made a lower high) and higher low than that yesterday. However, it closed -ve and well below yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met at open itself. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is a Doji. Friday's close didn't convincingly confirm a weekly evening star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (11/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5646/43 and 5607. Resistances are at about 5657, 5674, 5717 and 5727. Three likely +WWs give about 5702 (once above 5654), 5713 (once above 5665) and 5744 (once above 5690). +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. A likely -WW gives about 5604 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A rising channel mentioned in Wednesday's post seems to have broken down and now threatens to give about 5000. Also, a rising wedge can give about 5557 in case of a BD while two falling wedges give about 5715 and 5808 in case of a BO.

Nifty closed -ve on Wednesday and now indicates that lower levels are possible. The Harami Cross mentioned yesterday failed. Now, 5630-40 and 5725-35 are crucial zones and a daily close above/below them will give clear indication of the future trend. First sign of reversal and continuation of an uptrend would be if nifty opens above 5672 (preferably 5687) and closes above 5709 (preferably 5729).

2.         PCR down at 0.99 and VIX at 16.83. Pre-open high/low at 5666.35/5622.50 and close at 5663.50. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a slight gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5679NF, TARGET 5711.50 SL 5649.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         Forgot to mention that 9.30 strategy target met.

6.         Target of second +ww met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap (though nifty fut opened a bit down), made a lower low than that yesterday thereby giving hint of a bearish tone and remained in a horizontal channel of height 27 before suddenly breaking out. It made a higher high than that yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close as was indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first two +WWs and the first falling wedge mentioned in the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. Today's candle, though large and green, doesn't give confidence about continuation of uptrend yet.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (10/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5697, 5684/81, 5655 and 5633. Resistances are at about 5709, 5715, 5723, 5728 and 5849. Four likely +WWs give about 5728, 5760/66 and 5788. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5693, 5650 and 5628 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A rising channel can give about 5557 in case of a BD below 5681. A falling wedge gives about 5808 in case of a BO while two rising wedges can give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Daily nifty candle on Tuesday is a Doji and that too an inside bar thereby giving a Harami Cross. Since this formation is in a downtrend, it indicates possible reversal to uptrend if nifty opens on Wednesday above 5709 and closes +ve, preferably above 5752 to begin with. For that nifty must take out previous highs of about 5715, 5729 and 5752. Hence, though the general short term trend is bearish, I feel nifty will try to go up on Wednesday again before reacting. Initially, 5684 and 5787 are two important levels to watch for judging the short term trend. A breakout above 5849 will ensure continuation of uptrend, which started in early Sept.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 16.80.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5704NF, TARGET 5735 SL 5674.

4.         The above is a reverse trade after SL for first "sell" trade was hit around 9.45. Be careful of volatility which can trigger SL on either side. Luckily the present buy is close to SL.

5.         If SL is hit, target 5649NF sell above 5681 SL 5711.

6.         SL hit. Now 5649NF possible unless 5711 is taken out before that.

7.         Nifty opened gap down but could not rise much. It reacted later finally closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of two -WWs mentioned in the first post were met while the target of BD of first rising wedge was missed by a few points. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit twice but the target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle gives signs of lower levels to come.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (09/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 563 and 5658. Resistances are at about 5679, 5686, 5735 and 5845. Three likely +WWs give about 5733 (once above 5701) and 5751/5787 (once above 5693). +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5654/5632/5519 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A falling channel gives about 5751 in case of a BO. Also, a falling wedge gives about 5808 in case of a BO while two rising wedges give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Nifty closed below 5691 thereby confirming the evening star on daily chart. Also, the bearishness of topping tail on weekly chart was confirmed. However, NS/NF closed above crucial levels of 5665/5696. Hence, though the general trend is bearish, I feel nifty will try to go up on Tuesday before reacting again, particularly because of having fallen so much in two days. A daily close above 5895 will only reverse the trend, which seems likely next week only.

2.         PCR at 1.02 and VIX at 17.17. Pre-open high/low at 5708.15/5663.15 and close at 5708.15. The 10tf candle is very small (45 high) but bullish and may indicate +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5736NF, TARGET 5775/89 SL 5706.

4.         HnS gives about 5729NF again. What a volatility!

5.         Went long again after HnS gave target.

6.         Nifty opened gap up as expected but failed to go above yesterday's high, made a higher low and closed slightly -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was missed by 5. Also, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. However, when it reacted, it gave target of a HnS identified during the day. In the process, nifty almost filled the gap created today. The daily candle is thus a Doji and that too an inside bar, a Harami Cross in a downtrend.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (08/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5739, 5714 and 5700. Resistances are at about 5751, 5759, 5831 and 5838. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5728/5635/5521 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty made a new high and then collapsed by about 15% on Friday before recovering, thereby confirming bearishness indicated by the formation of previous week's star candle and Wednesday's Doji Star. The daily and weekly candles are hanging man. Even if one ignores the freak trade on Friday, the weekly candle is a topping tail. The trend is hence bearish unless nifty closes above 5895.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 16.78. Pre-open high/low at 6044.80/5746.95 and close at 5751.85. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate flat to -ve nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5758NF, TARGET 5721/12 SL 5788.

4.         Target of first -ww met soon upon open.

5.         First target met. I suggest book your short near target and go long with strict SL of 5710NF.

6.         Second target met.

7.         SL for long triggered but I feel it may not go down much more today. RIL playing spoil sport.

8.         Nifty opened flat and quickly started descending, closing -ve and also below Friday's low as indicated by pre-open data. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met so were both targets of 9.30 strategy trade.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (05/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5785, 5775/72, 5755, 5746 and 5727. Resistances are at about 5791, 5799, 5815 and 5825. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Four likely -WWs give about 5722/5709/5700/5679 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5400. A likely AT gives about 5855 in case of a BO while two likely rising wedges give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Nifty made a new high and closed at a new high on Thursday and seems to have nullified the bearishness indicated by the -ve div on daily chart, previous weekly star candle and Wednesday's Doji Star unless Friday closes well below 5691. The -ve div visible on daily chart has also vanished. However, since most if not all reforms have been announced, I feel it is wise to hedge, if not short upon opening, to begin with and decide next course of action based on Friday's and next Monday's market.

2.         PCR at 1.09 and VIX at 16.44. Pre-open high/low at 5816.80/5757.90 and close at 5815. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and may indicate a -ve nifty after a slightly gap up open, accompanied with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL AT/ABOVE 5876NF TARGET 5811/5792 SL 5906. Note that first target is already met hence trade carefully.

4.         Second target also almost met.

5.         Considering today's "crash", all -ww targets of first post met as also those not mentioned.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap as indicated in the first post but the high reached in first five min. was never crossed. Then an erroneous trade took nifty down by about 15% and then, though it recovered a great deal, it closed -ve and also below Thursday's close as indicated by pre-open data. The targets of all -WWs stated in the first post were met as also both the first target of 9.30 strategy. The daily candle is now a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.