Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (10/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5697, 5684/81, 5655 and 5633. Resistances are at about 5709, 5715, 5723, 5728 and 5849. Four likely +WWs give about 5728, 5760/66 and 5788. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5693, 5650 and 5628 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A rising channel can give about 5557 in case of a BD below 5681. A falling wedge gives about 5808 in case of a BO while two rising wedges can give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Daily nifty candle on Tuesday is a Doji and that too an inside bar thereby giving a Harami Cross. Since this formation is in a downtrend, it indicates possible reversal to uptrend if nifty opens on Wednesday above 5709 and closes +ve, preferably above 5752 to begin with. For that nifty must take out previous highs of about 5715, 5729 and 5752. Hence, though the general short term trend is bearish, I feel nifty will try to go up on Wednesday again before reacting. Initially, 5684 and 5787 are two important levels to watch for judging the short term trend. A breakout above 5849 will ensure continuation of uptrend, which started in early Sept.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 16.80.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5704NF, TARGET 5735 SL 5674.

4.         The above is a reverse trade after SL for first "sell" trade was hit around 9.45. Be careful of volatility which can trigger SL on either side. Luckily the present buy is close to SL.

5.         If SL is hit, target 5649NF sell above 5681 SL 5711.

6.         SL hit. Now 5649NF possible unless 5711 is taken out before that.

7.         Nifty opened gap down but could not rise much. It reacted later finally closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of two -WWs mentioned in the first post were met while the target of BD of first rising wedge was missed by a few points. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit twice but the target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle gives signs of lower levels to come.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (09/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 563 and 5658. Resistances are at about 5679, 5686, 5735 and 5845. Three likely +WWs give about 5733 (once above 5701) and 5751/5787 (once above 5693). +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5654/5632/5519 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A falling channel gives about 5751 in case of a BO. Also, a falling wedge gives about 5808 in case of a BO while two rising wedges give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Nifty closed below 5691 thereby confirming the evening star on daily chart. Also, the bearishness of topping tail on weekly chart was confirmed. However, NS/NF closed above crucial levels of 5665/5696. Hence, though the general trend is bearish, I feel nifty will try to go up on Tuesday before reacting again, particularly because of having fallen so much in two days. A daily close above 5895 will only reverse the trend, which seems likely next week only.

2.         PCR at 1.02 and VIX at 17.17. Pre-open high/low at 5708.15/5663.15 and close at 5708.15. The 10tf candle is very small (45 high) but bullish and may indicate +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5736NF, TARGET 5775/89 SL 5706.

4.         HnS gives about 5729NF again. What a volatility!

5.         Went long again after HnS gave target.

6.         Nifty opened gap up as expected but failed to go above yesterday's high, made a higher low and closed slightly -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was missed by 5. Also, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. However, when it reacted, it gave target of a HnS identified during the day. In the process, nifty almost filled the gap created today. The daily candle is thus a Doji and that too an inside bar, a Harami Cross in a downtrend.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (08/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5739, 5714 and 5700. Resistances are at about 5751, 5759, 5831 and 5838. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5728/5635/5521 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty made a new high and then collapsed by about 15% on Friday before recovering, thereby confirming bearishness indicated by the formation of previous week's star candle and Wednesday's Doji Star. The daily and weekly candles are hanging man. Even if one ignores the freak trade on Friday, the weekly candle is a topping tail. The trend is hence bearish unless nifty closes above 5895.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 16.78. Pre-open high/low at 6044.80/5746.95 and close at 5751.85. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate flat to -ve nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5758NF, TARGET 5721/12 SL 5788.

4.         Target of first -ww met soon upon open.

5.         First target met. I suggest book your short near target and go long with strict SL of 5710NF.

6.         Second target met.

7.         SL for long triggered but I feel it may not go down much more today. RIL playing spoil sport.

8.         Nifty opened flat and quickly started descending, closing -ve and also below Friday's low as indicated by pre-open data. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met so were both targets of 9.30 strategy trade.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (05/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5785, 5775/72, 5755, 5746 and 5727. Resistances are at about 5791, 5799, 5815 and 5825. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Four likely -WWs give about 5722/5709/5700/5679 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5400. A likely AT gives about 5855 in case of a BO while two likely rising wedges give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Nifty made a new high and closed at a new high on Thursday and seems to have nullified the bearishness indicated by the -ve div on daily chart, previous weekly star candle and Wednesday's Doji Star unless Friday closes well below 5691. The -ve div visible on daily chart has also vanished. However, since most if not all reforms have been announced, I feel it is wise to hedge, if not short upon opening, to begin with and decide next course of action based on Friday's and next Monday's market.

2.         PCR at 1.09 and VIX at 16.44. Pre-open high/low at 5816.80/5757.90 and close at 5815. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and may indicate a -ve nifty after a slightly gap up open, accompanied with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL AT/ABOVE 5876NF TARGET 5811/5792 SL 5906. Note that first target is already met hence trade carefully.

4.         Second target also almost met.

5.         Considering today's "crash", all -ww targets of first post met as also those not mentioned.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap as indicated in the first post but the high reached in first five min. was never crossed. Then an erroneous trade took nifty down by about 15% and then, though it recovered a great deal, it closed -ve and also below Thursday's close as indicated by pre-open data. The targets of all -WWs stated in the first post were met as also both the first target of 9.30 strategy. The daily candle is now a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (04/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5725/23, 5712 and 5707. Resistances are at about 5737, 5743, 5748, 5759 and 5831. Three likely small +WWs give about 5737/43/63 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 5724/5711/5705/5687/5650 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5400. Two likely ATs (or slightly rising wedges) give 5800+ or 5640/5557 in case of a BO or BD. The daily chart still shows -ve div though one more green daily candle with a new high/close may kill it.

Nifty made a new high and closed at a new high on Wednesday. The bearishness indicated by the -ve div on daily chart and previous weekly star candle seems to be vanishing slowly. However, this week's candle will only decide whether it becomes a weekly evening star. What's more, Wednesday's candle is also a Doji Star and can become an Evening Star if Thursday opens below 5727 and gives a Red candle. The trend is thus still uncertain but the only thing certain is strong liquidity. Trade with a good SL. I feel this is a good time to hedge to begin with and decide next course of action based on Thursday's and Friday's market.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 16.50. Pre-open high/low at 5751.55/5680.50 and close at 5751.55. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and may indicate a -ve nifty after a slightly gap up open, accompanied with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY AT/BELOW 5782NF TARGET 5828/44 SL 5752.

4.         First target met without giving a chance to enter a trade. All the +ww targets met soon upon open.

5.         Nifty opened up with a gap of about 20 and did not look back. But, though it made a new high and also closed at a new high, it could not rise much, the total range being about 55.The targets of all the +WWs mentioned in the first post were met during open itself. The first target of 9.30 strategy was also met while the second target was missed by just 2. One of the ATs also stated in the first post gave its target upon BO.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (03/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5717, 5690/88, 5665, 5619 and 5604. Resistances are at about 5722, 5726, 5742, 5828 and 5864. I feel two important levels among these are 5828 and 5690. One likely +WW gives about 5738 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5712/5706/5689/5652 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5467. A likely AT gives about 5887 or 5519 in case of a BO or BD. The daily chart still shows -ve div.

Though Nifty did not make a higher high on Monday than that on Friday, it has closed at a new high. The bearishness indicated by the formation of Topping Tails on daily chart along with a -ve div and previous weekly star candle also seems to be vanishing slowly. However, this week's candle will only decide whether it becomes a weekly evening star. The trend is thus still uncertain but the only certain thing is strong liquidity.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 16.34. Pre-open high/low at 6156.40/5457.50 and close at 5727.70. The 10tf candle is the largest (700 high) in a long time and is a doji. It may indicate a -ve nifty after a slightly gap up open with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL AT/ABOVE 5751NF TARGET 5720/04 SL 5781.

4.         Target of +ww met at open itself.

5.         Two small +WWs give 5730/38.

6.         First +ww target met. One more +ww gives 5750.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, made a higher high and a higher low than those on Monday and, in the process, made a new high and closed at a new high too, a mildly +ve close. However, the total range being only about 26, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was hit. The target of +ww mentioned in the first post as well that of first +ww identified during the day were met. Today's candle is doji star and threatens to become an evening star depending upon Thursday's open/candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (01/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5691, 5685/81, 5669, 5656, 5640, 5618 and 5609. Resistances are at about 5705, 5714, 5719, 5723, 5748, 5773 and 5780. Two small +WWs give about 5720 (once above 5700) and 5731 (once above 5710) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5676/65/43 (once below 5697) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5467.

Nifty finally crossed 5720 and also closed above 5692 as mentioned in the first post for Thursday, thereby nullifying bearish sentiment given by the four consecutive inside bars. However, formation of Topping Tails on daily chart along with a -ve div and the fact that the weekly candle is a star, which may turn out to be an evening star, gives bearish sentiment once again. Monday's open and next week's candle will only decide whether it becomes an evening star. The trend is thus again uncertain and in fact a bit bearish.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5704.75/5477.60 and close at 5704.75. The 10tf candle is a long legged hammer and may indicate a mildly +ve nifty after a flat open. PCR down at 1.06 and VIX down at 16.16.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5704.50 TARGET 5682.60/70 SL 5734.50.

4.         A DT has formed today whose BO/BD gives about 12 points either way. If SL is hit buy below 5746 target 5768/81 SL 5716.

5.         SL hit. Let's see whether NS goes above 5723.

6.         Target of first +ww met. 5723 still not crossed.

7.         Nifty opened relatively flat and made a lower high and higher low before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close, as indicated by pre-open data. It thereby closed at a new high. The target of first +ww mentioned in the first post was met however, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was also hit but reverse trade did not give its target. BO of a DT identified during the day also gave its target.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.