Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (20/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5593/89, 5560, 5526 and 5504. Resistances are at about 5682 and 5779. A number of likely +WWs give about 5628/32/40/44 and 5733 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5525 (once below 5570) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent DT gives about 5520 or 5650 in case of a BD/BO.

Nifty future barely managed to close once again above 5612, an important number as per a number theory thereby retaining its bullish sentiment in the short term. Liquidity continues to remain very high. However, nifty is likely to react from present levels to consolidate and discount any bad political fallout. With major global news out of the way, nifty will now be left to discount local news only. A daily close below 5591 will need to be treated with caution but only a daily close below 5515 will ring alarm bells. Otherwise, it is a buy on dips situation as of now.

2.         PCR at 1.17 and VIX at 17.83. Pre-open high/low at 5600.05/5277.40 and close at 5536.95. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate a mildly +ve nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5556NF TARGET 5593.60/5614 SL 5526. Be careful of volatility.

4.         A flag gives 5592NF unless killed below about 5572.

5.         First target of 9.30 strategy met albeit without giving an entry. Previous flag target also reached. A new flag now gives 5583NS unless killed below about 5565.

6.         Nifty opened gap down, managed to go up by about 44 points but then reacted to close mildly +ve (as indicated by the pre-open data) but below yesterday's close. In the process, it made a lower high and lower low than that on Tuesday. The gap created on 17th Sept was filled up in the opening itself. The total range remained about 44 points but the first target of the 9.30 strategy trade was met. The DT stated in the first post did break down in the open.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (18/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5603, 5562/59, 5534 and 5517. Resistances are at about 5624, 5668 and 5738. A likely +ww gives about 5667 (once above 5602) (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5586 (once below 5607) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). There is an apparent ST with apex at 5615 and a BD may give 5586/5567/5528. The daily chart of nifty shows that it is approaching overbought zone.

Nifty has been consistently opening gap up and making new highs thereby giving a bullish sentiment. NF also closed above 5612NF, an important number as per a number theory. Liquidity continues to remain very high. However, nifty is likely to react from present levels to consolidate and discount any bad political development. With major global news out of the way, nifty will now be left to discount local news only. A daily close below 5591 will need to be treated with caution but only a daily close below 5518 will ring alarm bells. Since this is a truncated week, trade with caution. Otherwise, it is a buy on dips situation as of now.

2.         PCR up at 1.14 and VIX up at 17.78. Pre-open high/low at 5610/5500.75 and close at 5602.40. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate a flat to mildly +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5595.35NF TARGET 5571 SL 5625.35. Note that sell is triggered and SL is close by. But be careful as SL may be triggered, overall trend being up. If SL is triggered, by below 5632NF target 5656/66 SL 5602.

4.         SL triggered so also buy. -ww target almost met after open.

5.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap, attempted to go up but failed and went down a bit, finally closing slightly -ve and also below yesterday's close. The range was narrow of about 28 points. The SL of first trade according to 9.30 strategy was triggered. However, the target of reverse trade was not met. In fact, nifty almost went upto its SL. The target of -ww stated in the first post was almost met. Similarly the BD of ST stated in the first post gave its first target. The daily candle is a Doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/09/12

LEADER POST for Monday (17/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5568, 5561 and 5476. Resistances are at about 5588, 5594, 5602, 5619 and 5676. The next higher reference level is 5631. A likely +ww gives about 5600 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5537 (once below 5561) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). The -ve divergence on daily chart of nifty mentioned in Friday's post has vanished. However, it is approaching overbought zone.

Once again nifty opened up with a huge gap and closed above previous high. Now it has to close above 5612NF, an important number as per a number theory, to continue uptrend. Liquidity continues to remain high. However, nifty is likely to react from 5600+ level (5631 was Feb '12 high) as it tries to consolidate and discount any bad political development. With major global news out of the way, nifty will now be left to discount local news only.

2.         PCR at 1.10 and VIX at 15.38. Pre-open high/low at 5802.25/5577.65 and close at 5631.75. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate flat to -ve nifty after gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5674.60 TARGET 5627.50 SL 5704.60. Second target for this strategy is 5608NF.

4.         First target met.

5.         Second target met. I feel it is worth a chance to buy small around 5600NF with 5575NF as SL.

6.         A +ww gives about 5630NS.

7.         +WW target revised to 5646NS but only once above 5606.

8.         A flag give about 5631NS.

9.         Flag target was almost met.

10.       Once again nifty opened up with a big gap, made a higher than that yesterday soon after open but later continued to go down and closed -ve (as indicated by pre-open data) though above yesterday's close. It also made a higher low than that yesterday. Importantly, it made a new high for 2012 and also closed at a new high for 2012.

Both the targets of 9.30 strategy's sell trade were met albeit without giving an entry. The target of the +ww stated in the first post was met upon open itself. Also, the initial target of a +ww and a flag identified during the day were almost met though not the revised target of the same +ww.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/09/12

LEADER POST for Friday (14/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5428/26, 5421, 5373 and 5362. Resistances are at about 5438/41, 5447, 5466 and 5471/75. The next higher reference level is 5500. Three +WWs give about 5442/47, 5481 and 5508 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5392 and 5332 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent rising wedge gives about 5334 in case of a BD. The top of this wedge is about 5466. A flag gives 5447 unless killed below 5427. A -ve divergence seems to be developing on daily chart of nifty.

Once again nifty could neither close above 5454NF, an important number as per one number theory, nor above the psychological level of 5450 spot. The news about fuel price hike in India as well as welcome news from FOMC in US are likely to give further boost to market. However, caution is advised in trading since a fall from present level or higher level is not ruled. Thursday's candle is once again an imperfect evening Doji star, which gives bearish tone. Only a gap up opening followed by a big green candle on Friday can negate it. Liquidity continues to remain high.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5528.40/5258.50 and close at 5528.35. The 10tf candle is a Marubuzo and may indicate a mildly -ve nifty after the huge gap up. This is the fifth time pre-open high is over 5500 in last 2 months. (5536/5578/5737/5645/5528).

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5531NF TARGET 5571.50/5592 SL 5501.

4.         Targets of all the three +WWs met. I wish I had posted +WWs with higher levels also. Flag target also met.

5.         First target met.

6.         Second target of 9.30 strategy (also met). Unfortunately buy level never came.

7.         Once again, nifty opened up with a huge gap taking cue from announcement of QE3 by FED in US and the resultant upbeat global markets. It continued to rise after opening, breaking the previous high of about 5500 made in March '12 and making a new high of about 5586 before finally closing +ve and well above previous close. In the process, all the targets of three +WWs and the flag mentioned in the first post were met. Also, met were targets of 9.30 strategy though nifty never came to levels to enable an entry in trade.

The only time in the last three years that nifty closed with such a huge gap was on 28th Oct '11 after which market had reacted sharply. However, nifty was in a downtrend at that time while now it is in an uptrend.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/09/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (13/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5414, 5408, 5399, 5361 and 5322. Resistances are at about 5438/40 and 5478/80 while other previous level to watch is 5449. Two +WWs give about 5472 and 5500 (+WWs with much higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5350 (once below 5422) and 5345 (once below 5385) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent rising wedge gives about 5334 in case of a BD. A flag promises higher level unless killed below 5410.

Nifty opened gap up on Wednesday and closed +ve as indicated by the bullish sentiment of Tuesday's candle. Also, it closed above 5400 and appears to be headed upwards. However, it did not close above 5252NF, an important number as per one number theory and is yet to close above the psychological level of 5450, above which only heavy short covering and buying will come. Fundamentals being very bad, caution is advised in trading since a fall from present level or slightly higher level is not ruled. Also, Friday (Thursday night) and Monday are major event days and hence caution is advised.

In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. The liquidity flow is massive and, as they say "never fight liquidity".

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 15.04. Pre-open high/low at 5467.10/5423.35 and close at 5435.20. This may indicate a flat to -ve nifty today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5433NF TARGET 5409/5391 SL 5463.

4.         Nifty opened flat as expected, could not make a higher high than yesterday (though NF did), made a higher low, remained in a narrow range of about 25 points and finally closed flat, as was indicated by the pre-open data. The narrow range was expected considering an important event (FOMC) due to unfold tonight in US. With the result, neither the SL nor the target of 9.30 strategy were hit. The day candle is once again an imperfect "evening doji star" implying a possible reversal.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/09/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (12/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5383, 5373, 5363, 5345 and 5306. Resistances are at about 5396/97, 5409 and 5490 while other previous levels to watch are 5399 and 5449. The +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Four likely -WWs give about 5369/59/53/38 (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently). An apparent rising wedge gives 5362/5334 in case of a BD. Also, the bottom of two channels in which nifty is hovering, is about 5362/5345 and a revisit there is not ruled out.

Although nifty opened gap down on Tuesday, it closed +ve strongly, nullifying the bearish sentiment created by Monday's candle. Also, it finally closed above 5374NS/5405NF and now appears ready for a big upmove. However, fundamentals being very bad, caution is advised in trading since a fall from present level is not ruled. In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. The narrow range of Monday seems to have given a BO as of now.

2.         PCR up at 1.01 VIX at 15.38. Pre-open high/low at 5404.95/5331.10 and close at 5404.45. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and indicates flat to negative market.

3.         Pre-open high/low at 5404.95/5331.10 and close at 5404.45. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and indicates flat to negative market. If SL is hit buy below 5445NF target 5464/78 SL 5415.

4.         A flag may give 5334NF soon.

5.         SL of reverse long trade not hit yet. 5415 was appx. correct value is 5413.90. NF made a low of 5414.70 but SL may be hit due to volatility on account important event today in Germany.

6.         SL hit.

7.         A +ww gives about 5435/40NS while the flag now gives 5442NS.

8.         +ww target met as it was revised down to 5433.

9.         Nifty opened up with a gap taking cue to global markets but remained within a narrow range of about 23 points before making its crucial upmove. However, due to an important event in Germany, the volatility was so high that the SLs of 9.30 strategy calls (first, reverse and reverse again) were triggered. However, the targets of a bullish flag and a +ww identified during the day were met. In the end, the target of last 9.30 strategy was missed, probably due to paucity of time. It made a higher high and a higher low than that yesterday and closed +ve and also above yesterday's close.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/09/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (11/09/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5358/56, 5348, 5342, 5272, 5226 and 5217. Resistances are at about 5368, 5372/74 and 5425 while other previous levels to watch are 5399 and 5449. The +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5332 (once below 5349) and 5322/5308 (once below 5345) (-WWs with lower levels are not mentioned presently).

While nifty spot closed slightly +ve, nifty future closed slightly -ve. But, though nifty spot just managed to cross the level of 5374 mentioned in the thread for Monday, it could not close above it. The period till 12/13th Sept looks turbulent. I feel a revisit to Friday's low is not ruled out. In the short term, unless nifty closes below 5307NS/5324NF, the trend is up. At the same time, a close above 5374NS/5405NF is a must now for continuation of further upmove.

An important aspect to note is that Monday's candle is an imperfect "evening doji star", which is a sign of trend reversal. Hence, Tuesday's candle should be Red and should preferably open below 5358.70 and also close near or below 5343 to confirm the trend reversal. The narrow range of Monday is in indication that a BD/BO is imminent.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 15.27. Pre-open high/low at 5363.45/5263.90 and close at 5336.10. The 10tf candle is a hammer and indicates flat to mildly +ve market.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5355NF TARGET 5319 SL 5385. However, the chart data is different after a long time and hence alternate levels are SELL ABOVE 5339NF TARGET 5319 SL 5369. It is better to take the latter being safer.

4.         A +ww gives 5375NS.

5.         +ww target met. SL triggered. Target of reversed trade of 5400 also almost met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and remained flat for over an hour before making its upmove. It made a higher high and a lower low than that on Monday and closed +ve and also above Monday's close, as hinted by the pre-open candle, thereby probably nullifying bearish signal given by Monday's imperfect evening doji star. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was triggered and the target of the reverse trade was met. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was almost met so was the target of a +ww identified during the day. Nifty closed almost at day's high.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.