Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (09/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5328 and 5262. Resistances are at 5377, 5383 and 5390. Two likely -WWs give about 5290 and 5225 (once below 5298). The other -ww with much lower level is not mentioned. However, 5262 is the bottom of a channel that has formed and I feel it may not be breached.

Nifty could not reach 5380 mentioned in post for Wednesday and reacted sharply thereafter. The daily candle for NS is an inverted hammer, which is not bad but the same for NF is a doji star. A gap down opening followed by a fall with a close on Thursday well below Tuesday's close will confirm bearishness. At the same time, a close well above Tuesday's close will negate this bearishness. Remember that liquidity flow is strong with FIIs continuing to buy heavily. And hence trade cautiously.

2.         BUY BELOW 5375 NF FOR TARGET 5405 (and may be 5420) SL 5345. As it is IIP data release day, it may be volatile.

3.         SL triggered with 5338 NF low so far.

4.         Surprisingly, contrary to yesterday's candle's bearish sentiment, nifty again opened up with a small gap but could not sustain and finally closed -ve and below yesterday's close, thanks mainly to a poor IIP data. The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered but NF did not go down much beyond that, managing to remain above 5330 mentioned yesterday. Today's NS candle seems to have formed an evening star although not a perfect one. However, like yesterday, NF daily candle does not show such a pattern. Hence, the trend is uncertain/ confusing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (08/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5325, 5273/68, 5237 and 5223. Resistances are at 5351, 5368, 5380 and 5406. Two likely -WWs give about 5282 (once below 5327) and 5251 (once below 5304). The other -ww with much lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty finally broke out of crucial zone of 5286-95 to cross above the previous high of 5348 but could not sustain. So to begin with, Tuesday's high of about 5350 must be crossed and sustained to ensure further rise. Otherwise, in the event of a mere retesting and retracement from Tuesday's high will invite selling. Market players seem to be upbeat about new FM's recent announcements considering that FIIs have been buying incessantly. Hence, a bear trap by retracement from Tuesday's high can not be ruled out. At the same time, generally nothing happens when Parliament session is on (though a number of important bills are due for approval) and big players may take a breather. Best is to trade with good SLs or even hedge.

2.         PCR at 1.15 and VIX at 16.21. Both have gone up. Pre-open high/low at 5380.25/5258.50 and close at 5345.25. The 10tf candle is a long legged doji and may indicate uncertainty and volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5371 TARGET 5395/5415 SL 5341. EXPECT VOLATILITY IN VIEW OF CONFUSION AMONG TRADERS/PLAYERS ABOUT FUTURE OF NIFTY. NOTE NS AND NF HAVE CROSSED YESTERDAY'S RESPECTIVE HIGHS.

4.         A likely flag gives 5371NF unless killed below 5354.

5.         Flag target considered reached being only 1.20 below 5371.

6.         Crossing and remaining above 5359 NS now is a must for any further upmove.

7.         First target almost reached. Book at least partially and raise SL to 5364 or cost whichever is higher. Remember change time 2.22pm. Also, 5380NS may be max.

8.         Made a high of 5376.45.

9.         Once again nifty opened up with a small gap, went up to as much as 5376 before reacting sharply. Both NS and NF closed above yesterday's close but slightly -ve w.r.t. to today's open. NS candle formed an inverted hammer while NF candle was a doji star.

The uncertainty and volatility was as indicated by the pre-open candle. The target of 9.30 strategy was almost met. A bullish flag identified during the day also gave its target. NF closed above 5353, an important number as per one number theory and hence it doesn't help being extremely bearish form here.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/08/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (07/08/12)

1.         The supports are closely grouped at 5280, 5273/71, 5260/58, 5253/50, 5230 and 5212/10. Resistances are at 5288, 5291/94, 5318 and 5333 while other level to watch is 5295 and 5358. An upper resistance is 5346. Two likely +WWs give about 5313 and 5320 while two likely -WWs give about 5144 and 5114 (once below 5222). The other -ww with lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty finally broke out of crucial level of 5250 to close above previous high of 5267 but closed in the resistance zone. So to begin with 5295 is one crucial level. The gap created on 12/07 (5306) is yet to be filled up. As of now, nifty doesn't seem to have enough steam to go to much higher levels unless we see a series of +ve actions from the Govt. Monday's brief speech by FM seems to have given some hope and it's possible that FIIs may see it +vely. So, we may see another upmove on Tuesday. But remember that strong resistances exist at 5346 and 5380.

2.         PCR at 1.08 and VIX at 16.22. Pre-open high/low 5323.10/5228.65 and close at 5295.40. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate flat trend with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5278NF TARGET 5261/45 SL 5308. BUT REMEMBER TODAY COULD BE VOLATILE IN A FLAT RANGE AND SLs ON EITHER SIDE COULD BE TRIGGERED AS IT HAPPENED JUST NOW WHEN IT TRIGGERED SL FOR LONG TREND JUST BEFORE 9.30. IF SL FOR THIS SHORT TRADE IS TRIGGERED AGAIN, BUY WITH SL 5293 AND TARGET 5341/61. I FEEL EITHER SIDE TARGETS MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED TODAY.

4.         Upper target revised down to 5356 from 5361NF.

‎5.         12th July gap filled up.

6.         A likely bullish flag fails below about 5308NF. First +ww target mentioned in the first post met. Second only a few points away.

7.         Second +ww target also met. Let's see if bullish flag mentioned above gives 5350NF.

8.         First target of 9.30 strategy reached. raise SL to 5323NF. Flag target met.

9.         A +ww target mentioned on 20/07 also met though increased since then.

10.       Nifty opened up with a small gap and, contrary to indication given by the pre-open candle, gradually climbed up to fill up the gap created on 12th July and finally closed +ve and also above Monday's close. It did not break any supports and went past all resistances to marginally break previous high of 5348 (and also the upper TL from Feb high) before reacting a bit. Apparently, buyers took +ve cue from FM's speech on Monday as stated in the first post.

In the process, both the targets of +WWs were met. Also met was the target of a +ww mentioned in the post for 20/07 though it had gone up since then. The SL of initial "sell" trade given by 9.30 strategy was triggered soon after 9.30 and both the targets of reverse "buy" trade were met. A bullish flag identified during the day also gave its target. In short, a satisfactory day for trading.

The intraday chart of nifty fut values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/08/12

LEADER POST for Monday (06/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5208, 5190, 5185 and 5168/67 while other levels to watch are 5154 and 5077. Resistances are at 5217/21, 5226/27 and 5240 while other levels to watch are 5247/57/67. An upper zone of strong resistance is 5286-95. Nifty has been struggling to cross recent highs of about 5257 (19/07) and 5267 (13/07). Two likely +WWs give about 5252 (once above 5206) and 5306 while two likely -WWs give about 5191 (once below 5212) and 5118 (once below 5209). The other -ww with lower level is not mentioned.

Nifty has moved in a very narrow range in the last few days. It is important to note that Friday's candle was once again a hanging man. Hence, it is important to see opening and closing levels on Monday to confirm the bearish signal of hanging man or otherwise. However, considering the way global markets behaved on Friday, we will most probably see a gap up opening on Monday and then the gap created on 12/07 (5306) could be filled up. But, as of now, nifty doesn't seem to have enough steam to go to much higher levels unless we see a series of +ve actions from the Govt.

2.         PCR at 1.11 and VIX at 16.12.

3.         Pre-open high/low 5260.85/5203.55 at while close at 5260.85. This is probably the first time in many days that pre-open closed at high. Though nifty has gone down once with such a pre-open, it was during a downtrend while it is opposite this time and hence nifty may move up today. But that will bring it close to strong resistance levels. So, be careful in your trades.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5267NF TARGET 5247 SL 5297. BUT BE CAREFUL IN VIEW OF THE BULLISH UNDERTONE.

5.         If SL is hit, buy immediately with target 5326/39NF and SL 5276. But no haste.

6.         Having crossed all resistance levels stated in first post, we need to see how zone of 5286-95 resists.

7.         Day's close above 5250NS is good, above 5267 is very good and above 5295 is excellent.

8.         I feel one should carry longs today.

9.         As stated in the first post, nifty opened gap up but then remained flat, possibly indicating distribution with rsi showing -ve div upto 15tf. As mentioned after pre-open, it could not cross upper resistance level of 5295. The first +ww target was met in the opening itself but the gap of 19/07 was not filled. It closed +ve and also above Friday's close but within the resistance zone. However, the fact that it closed above the previous high of 5267 makes it look bullish enough for a further rise.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/08/12

LEADER POST for Friday (03/08/12)

1.         The support is in the zone 5225-22 while other levels to watch are 5212-04, 5154 and 5077. Resistances are at 5230-34, 5246, 5264 and 5364. Nifty is struggling to cross recent highs of about 5257 (19/07) and 5267 (13/07). A likely +WW gives about 5260 while two likely -WWs give about 5169 and 5124 (once below 5205). The other -ww with lower level is not mentioned. Two likely rising wedges, which were mentioned yesterday did break down and may give 5155 and 5078 unless 5295 and 5333 resp. are taken out.

         Nifty has moved in a very narrow range in the last two days and, as mentioned yesterday, nifty now seems set to break out above crucial level of about 5250 or break down below about 5150. Thursday's candle is once again a hanging man. Hence, it is important to see opening level on Friday to confirm the bearish signal of hanging man or otherwise. Market's future now seems to depend on outcome of ECB meeting on Thursday evening. If it is good, we may see a gap up opening on Friday and then the gap created on 12/07 (5306) could be filled up. If news from Europe is not good, nifty will react.

2.         PCR at 1.11 and VIX at 16.77. Pre-open high/low at 5227.75/5184.70 and close at 5195.60. It may indicate that, though it will open gap down, it may remain flat or mildly +ve.

3.         One more +ww gives 5238 but looks difficult considering today's mood in market.

4.         Freak opening shows opening at 5100 and high of 5220. There is no 9.30 strategy for NF due to freak opening but as per NS data, sell above 5178NS target 5156 SL 5208. As per another web based software target is 5160NF. Hence, those who have carried their shorts may hold same with 5225NF/5208NS, whichever comes later, as SL.

5.         A bearish flag may give 5160NS.

6.         First -ww target met. NF not remaining below PP level. Short sellers be aware. Itching to buy with 10-15 point SL, quite against morning call considering nifty movement as of now. Bought a little. Nifty is flat for 3 hours and just around PP level and hence the contra trade.

7.         If 5207NS is crossed then 5221 and 5230 may come. A likely (bullish) flag gives 5213NS. Carry (longs) only if NF seems to be closing above 5252 and NS above 5230. remember yesterday also it looks like closing above that but did not.

8.         Flag target met. (Nifty) not crossing 5221NS mentioned above yet but I feel it should. To be safe, keep SL at 5233NF and get out at 3.28pm if it doesn't go to 5248NF. Sold.

9.       In view of bad news from ECB, nifty opened gap down in line with global markets but, as commented after the pre-open, it recovered to close mildly +ve though below yesterday's close. In the process, today's candle is once again a hanging man. The target of first -ww was met while that due to break down of first rising wedge was missed by about 10 points. However, NF showed a freak opening value and hence 9.30 strategy had to be based on NS values but its target was missed by 9 points and then the SL was triggered due to a 55 point rally from the lows.

Target of a bearish flag identified in the morning was missed by 5 points. A reverse/contra "buy" trade, taken after nifty remained flat around pivot point level for 3 hours, proved to be successful yielding about 60 point gain. A bullish flag identified in the afternoon also gave its target. To summarise, a satisfactory day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-02/08/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (02/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5238 and 5229 while other levels to watch are 5154, 5077 and 5032. Resistances are at 5246, 5252 and 5263. Nifty is struggling to cross recent highs of about 5257 (19/07) and 5267 (13/07). Four likely -WWs give about 5229/21, 5207, 5127 (once below 5189) and 4988 (once below 5220). Two likely rising wedges give appx. 5155 and 5077, if they break down.

As mentioned yesterday, nifty now seems set to break out above crucial level of about 5250 or break down below about 5150 as indicated by above mentioned -WWs and rising wedges. If Wednesday's outcome of FED meeting is good, we may see a gap up opening on Thursday but previous highs will pose resistance. If they are taken out, the gap created on 12/07 (5306) could be filled up.

2.         (Post by LLK) -ww target of 5229/21 NS achieved.

3.         (As per ) 09:30 strategy, SELL 5235 NF target 5209 SL 5265.

4.         A falling wedge break out gives 5242NS while a +ww gives 5247.

5.         +ww target raised to 5255NS.

6.         Note that NF stopped at an important "number" 5252. If it crosses it, it becomes a buy as per that number theory. Also, if and only if ECB news is good, we may see a gap up tmrw and further rise. All short sellers will be killed then. That's why I said don't fight liquidity. At the same time, if there is no good news from ECB, nifty may not crash although will surely react. I feel it may be a good idea to have a hedged position by end of day if NF/NS doesn't seem to be closing above 5252/5247.

7.         we may see nifty closing so that we see a plus/minus 150 point move tmrw (onwards) depending on ECB news and how global markets behave.

8.         Nifty once again opened slightly down, made a lower high and low than yesterday and also closed -ve and below yesterday's close. Target of one -ww was met while that of second was just missed by 3. However, like Wednesday, neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered with nifty remaining in a small range of 25 points, clearly waiting for news from ECB today evening.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-01/08/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (01/08/12)

1.         The supports are at 5221, 5194/90 and 5160 while other levels to watch are 5154, 5077 and 5032. Resistances are at 5234/37 and 5273 while other levels to watch are 5239 and 5256. Four likely -WWs give about 5202 (once below 5227), 5136 (once below 5180), 5102 (once below 5152) and 5015 (once below 5197). A rising wedge seems to have formed, which, if true and breaks down, gives appx. 5150.

Tuesday's candle is a Hanging Man. Although it is a green (white) candle, it is still a bearish sign. However, this bearish sign will be confirmed only if Wednesday closes below Tuesday's close. If Wednesday also opens gap down and/or it's a red (black) candle, it will be a stronger bearish sign. Nifty now seems set to break out above crucial level of 5250 or break down below 5150 and Wednesday's nifty movement will be important from that point of view. Note that there is a gap created on 12/07 (5306), which could be filled up in case of a break out. Wednesday is also an important event day when Fed may announce some measures in US and its outcome will have a bearing on Thursday's market.

2.         (AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY) TREND UP & BUY BELOW 5252, TARGET 5278, SL 5222 (all NF).

3.         Nifty opened mildly -ve giving hopes that it may confirm the bearish signal given by Tuesday's hanging man but managed to close +ve and also above Tuesday's close thereby negating the bearish sentiment for the moment and actually making it slightly bullish. But as indicated by the long legged doji candle of pre-open on 10tf, it remained as flat as it can be, remaining in only a 27 point range. However, once again 5250 proved difficult to cross. Obviously, under the circumstances, neither the target of 9.30 strategy was met nor was its SL triggered. Clearly, as mentioned in the first post, nifty is waiting for the outcome of FED meeting on Wednesday night.

Not many posts today as I was away. My apologies for the same.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.