Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/06/13

LEADER POST for Monday (17/06/13)

1.         Supports are at about 5798 and 5707 while resistances are at about 5850, 5878 and 5932. Previous higher levels to watch are 5913/64. Two gaps are at 5878 and 5729. Five likely +WWs can give about 5825, 5934 (once above 5825), 5970/5994 (once above 5813) and 5986 (once above 5847) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs can give about 5799, 5761 (once below 5791) and 5753 (once below 5777) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling channels seem to have broken out and can give 5972/6130 unless nifty goes down again.

Nifty rose sharply to close above 5800, above the last three day's close and also above 200 sma, as indicated by Thursday's NR7 day. Nifty also closed above 34 ema on weekly basis. However, weekly chart still shows bearishness. Futher strength will be indicated if Monday closes above 5815 and next week closes above 5840. Also, if June closes above 5893, monthly candle will be a hammer, which may counter May's inverted hammer. However, bullishness may come only if three consecutive days close above 5860 as it may negate the large and complex HnS, which has caused the severe fall in recent past and which is threatening much lower levels. VIX and PCR are still high and can cause sharp volatility. Monday being RBI policy day, trade carefully. Only global cues and/or liquidity can take nifty further up.

2.         PCR up at 0.95 and VIX down at 18.35. Pre-open data suggests a flat to -ve nifty after a small gap up open unless it remains above 5821 by afternoon.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5809 NF, TARGET 5775, SL 5839.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5827NF, target 5862, SL 5797.

5.         Target met but without giving chance of an entry. Also target of first +ww of the first post was met soon after open.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and remained subdued till RBI policy review. It then reacted immediately after the announcement but only marginally, only to rise sharply thereafter. It thus made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing +ve and also above Friday's close. The target of first +WW of the first post was met soon after open. The target of 9.30 strategy trade was also met but without giving a chance of an entry. Later its SL was hit but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.