Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (31/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5589, 5580, 5566 and 5533 while the resistances are at about 5603, 5612, 5674, 5682 and 5693. Three likely +WWs give about 5632, 5689 and 5719 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). One likely -WW gives about 5562 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed below 34 ema and is expected to take support at 55 ema, which is at about 5542. Nifty also broke down from the narrow range it was in for many days. While it is possible that it may revisit 5432, which is the gap created on 13/14 Sept, it may have a few surprises up its sleeve and hence one must trade with proper SLs. To begin with, nifty now needs to close above 5680 to give hopes of an uptrend.

2.         PCR down at 1.03 and VIX at 15.17. Pre-open high/low at 5606.10/5573 and close at 5596.75. This may indicate a flat to +ve nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5609NF, TARGET 5587/73 SL 5639.

4.         IF SL IS HIT, BUY BELOW 5648, TARGET 5671/87 SL 5618.

5.         SL HIT.

6.         Nifty opened flat, went down to make lower low and then rose to close +ve and also above yesterday's close as was suggested by the pre-open data. The total range was about 41. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-30/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (29/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5644, 5630 and 5609 while the resistances are at about 5680, 5701 and 5717. A number of likely +WWs give about 5675, 5688, 5700, 5706 and 5743 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while one likely -WW gives about 5576 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

The daily candle is a doji, which seems to imply that nifty is on the verge of a BO/BD. Nifty has remained in a narrow channel with height of about 85 since 8th Oct and a BO/BD is overdue. It needs to close above 5730 to continue the uptrend while a daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. RBI policy review on Tuesday will mean likelyhood of a high volatility and hence trade carefully.

2.         PCR at 1.1 and VIX at 15.12. Pre-open high/low at 5665.60/5578.10 and close at 5656.35. This may indicate an uncertain nifty after a flat opening, perhaps a -ve nifty.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5676NF, TARGET 5652 SL 5706.

4.         IF SL IS HIT, BUY BELOW 5713NF, TARGET 5738/48, SL 5683.

5.         SL hit. Target of first +ww met.

6.         Target of second +ww also met. Now to see whether target of -ww will be met.

7.         SL of 9.30 strategy hit again.

8.         Nifty opened down with a slight gap, tried to go up but the moment credit policy was announced, it tanked and could not recover. It closed -ve and also below yesterday's close as suggested by the pre-open data. In the process it gave targets of two +WWs of the first post. The SLs of 9.30 strategy and its reverse trade were hit and finally the target of original trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Nifty-Long Term Monthly Chart

The attached nifty monthly chart displays interesting scenario. Long term supports are seen at about 5000 and 3250 as of now (the lower TLs). But, a -WW gives about 4050 once point 5, which is at about 6300+, is reached. I feel that nifty may make a new high before reacting. Once it crosses below the upper TL, a long term short entry can be taken for the -WW target. The chart also shows a +WW whose targets have been met twice but can give about 5900 too. I have taken the liberty to ignore the possibility that point 3 may not be above point 1.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-29/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (29/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5630 and 5641/39 while the resistances are at about 5671, 5677, 5708 and 5715. A number of likely +WWs give about 5672, 5697/5704 and 5729/31 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now) while one likely -WW gives about 5590 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

The daily candle is an imperfect hammer while the weekly candle is once again an inside bar, which indicates that there could be a break out if nifty goes above 5752. Nifty has remained in a narrow channel with height of about 85 since 8th Oct and a BO/BD is overdue. It needs to close above 5730 to continue the uptrend while a daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5666.30/5636.05 and close at 5665.20. The 10tf candle is a long legged doji and may indicate a +ve nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5722, TARGET 5751/67 SL 5692.

4.         Targets of first two +WWs already met in the morning.

5.         SL triggered. NOW SELL ABOVE 5697 TARGET 5665 SL 5727.

6.         I think nifty may not give lower target and may actually go up. One can take a chance and buy half qty now and another half if it goes down further a bit.

7.         Nifty opened slightly up, made a higher high and low than those on Friday but finally closed flat and slightly above Friday's close. The targets of first two +WWs of the first post were met but the SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered. However, target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is a doji implying that it may be ready for a BO/BD.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (26/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5688 and 5627 while the resistances are at about 5714, 5718 and 5722. Two likely +WWs give about 5733 and 5767 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5653 and 5611 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

The daily candle is once again an inside bar. Nifty has remained in a narrow range for too long and has to break out or down soon. It needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend while a daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 1.02 and VIX at 13.52. Pre-open high/low at 5704.60/5670.40 and close at 5681.85. This may indicate a flat nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5723, TARGET 5754/72 SL 5693.

4.         IF SL IS HIT, SELL ABOVE 5699 TARGET 5668/65 SL 5729.

5.         Yesterday NF made a high at magic no. of 5757 but did not cross it. So short term trend may be down.

6.         Target of first -ww met.

7.         Nifty opened gap down and kept on going down. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday and finally closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met. The SL of 9.30 strategy triggered but the target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is an imperfect hammer while the weekly candle is an inside doji bar once again.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-25/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (25/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5684, 5678, 5661 and 5657 while the resistances are at about 5712, 5722 and 5733. Three likely +WWs give about 5698, 5714 and 5734 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5684 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A DT seems to have broken out and can give 5800+ if nifty doesn't go below 5634.

The daily candle is a bearish inside bar. Nifty needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. Thursday being expiry day, trade carefully. Otherwise trade in Nov series fut/options.

2.         Considering the inside bar candle of Tuesday, buy > 5722NS and sell < 5658 (risky sell < 5681). Unfortunately nifty may remain within this range and hence no trade unless you are carrying a trade overnight. In that case, I feel one should cover longs at about 5700 and shorts at about 5660. Best gamble may be to buy 5700pe below 5, which could come after 1.30 pm since I feel expiry may be around 5675.

3.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 13.71. Pre-open high/low at 5702.85/5667.95 and close at 5688.80. The 10tf candle is a doji and may indicate an uncertain and volatile nifty after a flattish opening.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5707, TARGET 5730/44 SL 5677.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, went up a bit and then reacted sharply before recovering again. However, in spite of being an expiry day, total range was only about 31. The target of first +ww of the first post was met but neither the target nor the SL of 9.30 strategy was met. The daily candle is once again an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-23/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (23/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5711, 5693, 5669 and 5627 while the resistances are at about 5726 and 5784. Three likely +WWs give about 5726, 5739 and 5758 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5703, 5684 and 5638 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A DT seems to have broken out and can give 5800+ if nifty doesn't go below 5634.

The daily candle is a bullish engulfing one. What's more, it seems to have formed a "Last engulfing Bottom", which is bullish, though it is not exactly at the bottom of a downtrend. Hence bulls still seem to be in some control.

Nifty closed above 5713 but needs to close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue the uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500. Expiry being 2 days away, trade carefully. Otherwise trade in Nov series fut/options.

2.         PCR up at 1.03 and VIX down at 13.04. Pre-open high/low at 5777.90/5713.85 and close at 5715.65. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer (topping tail) and may indicate a flat to -ve nifty after a flat opening, accompanied by volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5694, TARGET 5672/56 SL 5724. BE CAREFUL AS SL MAY BE HIT DUE TO VOLATILITY. BEST TO ENTER CLOSER TO SL THAN USUAL 30 DIFFERENCE.

4.         Target of first -ww of first post met.

5.         Target of second -ww considered met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, barely made a lower high and higher low than those yesterday but closed -ve and also below yesterday's close as was indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met. However, target of 9.30 strategy trade was not met. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-22/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (22/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5678, 5662/60, 5650, 5647 and 5632 while the resistances are at about 5687/89, 5697, 5708/09 and 5755. Four likely +WWs give about 5700, 5753, 5764 and 5835 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5672, 5655 and 5615 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5708 unless killed below 5670.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5770. A DT can give 5800+ if it breaks out and remains above 5708.

 

The daily candle is an Inside Bar, which could be bullish. The weekly candle is a bullish Doji. However, while daily charts shows hints of a rounded bottom, the weekly charts shows hints of a rounded top. The +ve sign in favour of an uptrend is that daily candles consecutive three days have longer lower wicks, which may mean that bulls are still in some control.

 

Nifty closed just below 5686 and needs to close baove higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. To start an uptrend, to begin with, nifty must close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.wever, while daily chart shows hints of a rounded bottom, the weekly chart shows hints of a rounded top. The +ve sign in favour of an uptrend is that daily candles of consecutive three days have longer lower wicks, which may mean that bulls are still in some control.  may take it down to 5500 H

The daily candle is an Inside Bar, which could be bullish. The weekly candle is a bullish Doji. However, while daily chart shows hints of a rounded bottom, the weekly chart shows hints of a rounded top. The +ve sign in favour of an uptrend is that daily candles of consecutive three days have longer lower wicks, which may mean that bulls are still in some control.

Nifty closed just below 5686 and needs to close above higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. To start an uptrend, to begin with, nifty must close above 5730 and then 5800 to continue uptrend. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 1.01 and VIX at 14.54. Pre-open high/low at 5948/5658.80 and close at 5667.60. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5694, TARGET 5712/29 SL 5664.

4.         First target of 9.30 strategy met. Targets of first +ww and first -ww also met.

5.         Second target of 9.30 strategy considered met.

6.         At last NS made a new high and closed above 5713.

7.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, made a higher high and lower low than those on Friday (though nifty fut made a slightly higher low) and closed +ve and also above Friday's close as was indicated by pre-open data. In the process, targets of first +ww, first -ww and bullish flag of the first post were met. Both the targets of 9.30 strategy were also met.

The bullish close also obeyed hints given by Friday's inside bar and last week's doji confirming that bulls are still in control. The daily candle is not only bullish engulfing but its close is also above Friday's high.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (19/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5716, 5702, 5688, 5652, 5644, 5632 and 5616 while the resistances are at about 5718, 5726 and 5770. Four likely +WWs give about 5733, 5750, 5792 and 5825 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Five likely -WWs give about 5701, 5687, 5680, 5663 and 5632 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5744 unless killed below 5673.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900 while a falling channel seems to have broken out and can give 5815 unless nifty goes below 5650 again. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. Another smaller rising wedge can give 5687/5651 if it breaks down unless nifty remains above 5730.

Nifty closed above 5686 (posted as the first condition for an upmove) in the thread for Wednesday but it needs to close above higher levels to confirm end of the recent downtrend. For example, it must go higher than 5752 and close +ve on Friday to give a weekly bullish engulfing candle. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR up at 1.07 and VIX down at 14.76. Pre-open high/low at 5985.25/5676.20 and close at 5703.30. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer or a topping tail and may indicate negative nifty after a slightly gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5704NF, TARGET 5674/54 SL 5734. The first 5tf candle is a hammer so trade carefully.

4.         First -ww target met.

5.         First target of 9.30 strategy met. Targets of first four -WWs also met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap and continued to go down, staging a small recovery at the end as has been the case in the last few days. It finally closed -ve and also below yesterday's low as indicated by the pre-open data. In the process, targets of the first four -WWs of the first post were met as also the first target of 9.30 strategy. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (18/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5654/51, 5642, 5638, 5633, 5624 and 5572. Resistances are at about 5671, 5683, 5703 and 5719. Five likely +WWs give about 5669, 5692/96, 5744 and 5788 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5657, 5640, 5615 and 5574 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5685 unless killed below about 5647.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900.

Though nifty fut closed above 5656 on Wednesday, an important number as per one number theory, market still looks nervous. 5630 to 5730 remains a crucial zone. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800, though on immediate basis, a daily close above first 5686 and then 5730 is required to begin with. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 1.00 and VIX at 15.17. Pre-open high/low at 5675.30/5462.05 and close at 5675.30. This is the second lowest pre-open low in a month. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5668NF, TARGET 5642/28 SL 5698.

4.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, could not make a new low and then rose suddenly to make a new weekly high before closing +ve and also above yesterday's low as indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first three +WWs and first -WW of the first post were met. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit and the target of reverse trade was met. NS closed above important level of 5710 but it's just the first step towards confirmation of further upmove.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (17/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5638, 5634/32 and 5582. Resistances are at about 5701, 5708 and 5760. Three likely +WWs give about 5722, 5770 and 5792 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5628 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag can give 5580 unless killed above about 5685.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900 while a falling channel can give about 5815 unless nifty goes and remains below 5589. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900.

The daily candle has formed a bearish "outside bar' and this may imply continuation of the present downtrend. 5630 to 5735 remains a crucial zone and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. Market looks nervous and may not show clear direction till major corporate results are out. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.96 and VIX at 15.57. Pre-open high/low at 5709.20/5648 and close at 5681.10. The 10tf candle is like an inverted hammer and may indicate a +ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5669NF, TARGET 5643 SL 5699.

4.         Nifty opened gap up but then started sliding down, making a lower high and low than those yesterday. It recovered a bit late in the day but yet closed -ve, though above yesterday's close. The targets of 9.30 strategy and -ww of the first post were just missed.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-16/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (16/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5683, 5657/55, 5633 and 5596. Resistances are at about 5691, 5695, 5709, 5722 and 5746. Five likely +WWs give about 5703/12, 5737, 5742 and 5760 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5669 and 5615 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give higher target unless killed below about 5667. An imperfect IHnS can give 5757 and 5815 once nifty remains above 5720.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and can give about 5530 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5537 unless nifty recovers and remains above about 5900. A falling wedge seems to have broken out and can give about 5815 unless nifty falls and remains below about 5600.

5630 to 5735 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. Market looks nervous and may not show clear direction till major corporate results are out. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above about 5800. A daily close below 5630 may take it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.97 and VIX at 15.90. Pre-open high/low at 5714.75/5687.25 and close at 5705.60. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         Targets of first two +WWs as well as that of flag.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5747NF, TARGET 5767/82 SL 5717. However, chart data gives opposite trend, so be careful.

5.         If SL is hit, sell above 5704NF, target 5682, SL 5734.

6.         SL is hit.

7.         Target of first -ww met. Target of 9.30 strategy almost met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap but made a higher high and lower low than those yesterday and closed -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process, targets of the first two +WWs, first -ww and the flag of the first post were met. The SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered and target of reverse trade was met. The daily candle is bearish engulfing.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-15/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (15/10/12)

1.         The supports are closely spaced at about 5671, 5668, 5664, 5661, 5611 and 5558. Resistances are at about 5710, 5723, 5732 and 5772. A number of likely +WWs give about 5686/5706 (once above 5669), 5702 (once above 5684), 5729 (once above 5670), 5735 (once above 5632) and 5760 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5655 (once below 5732, not reached yet) and 5635 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty is near the bottom of a rising channel, which may give about 5000 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5930. A rising wedge can give about 5537 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5846. A falling wedge can give about 5815 unless nifty crosses and remains below about 5600.

The daily candle of nifty is a Doji and may imply temporary reversal to uptrend. The weekly candle does not give convincing confirmation of a weekly evening star. 5630-40 and 5725-35 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give indication of the short term trend. For a clear uptrend to emerge, nifty should give a daily close above 5788, a weekly close above 5747 and an intraday high above 5816. A daily close below 5630 may take it it down to 5500.

2.         PCR at 0.98 and VIX at 16.49. Pre-open high/low at 5699.80/5663.15 and close at 5674.25. The 10tf candle is a Doji and may indicate a flat market marked with volatility, which is possible due to important event/results today.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5678NF, TARGET 5644/24 SL 5708.

4.         SL hit, now buy below 5695NF target 5730 SL 5665.

5.         Targets of first +ww and first -ww met.

6.         Nifty opened flat, made a lower high & low than that yesterday but closed +ve and also above yesterday's close. The targets of first +ww and -ww were met. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (12/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5703, 5656, 5646, 5624 and 5582. Resistances are at about 5711, 5720/23, 5728, 5772 and 5812. A likely +WW gives about 5757 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four small -WWs give about 5695 (once below 5715), 5668 (once below 5682), 5664 (once below 5676) and 5638 (once below 5666) (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A mild +ve div has developed on daily chart.

A rising channel seems to have broken down and now threatens to give about 5000 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5871. Also, a rising wedge too seems to have broken down and can give about 5542 unless nifty crosses and remains above about 5871. A falling wedges also seems to have broken out and can give about 5815 unless nifty crosses and remains below about 5615. A 74 high bullish flag promises higher levels unless killed below 5669.

Nifty gave a surprise on Thursday and rose sharply to close +ve. However, it neither opened above 5672 nor closed above 5709 as mentioned in the post for Thursday. The daily candle, therefore, still does not give confidence about continuation of uptrend. 5630-40 and 5725-35 remain crucial zones and a daily close above/below them may give clear indication of short term trend. If Friday closes well below 5691, weekly evening star gets confirmed and bearish undertone may continue.

2.         PCR at 1.00 and VIX at 16.49. Pre-open high/low at 5842.60/5650.95 and close at 5681.70. This indicates a flat to mildly +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         Targets of first two -WWs met in open itself.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5702NF, TARGET 5675/58 SL 5732.

5.         if SL is hit buy below 5734NF target 5760/68 SL 5704.

6.         Nifty opened down with a small gap but made a higher high (though nifty fut made a lower high) and higher low than that yesterday. However, it closed -ve and well below yesterday's close. The targets of first two -WWs of the first post were met at open itself. However, SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is a Doji. Friday's close didn't convincingly confirm a weekly evening star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/10/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (11/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5646/43 and 5607. Resistances are at about 5657, 5674, 5717 and 5727. Three likely +WWs give about 5702 (once above 5654), 5713 (once above 5665) and 5744 (once above 5690). +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. A likely -WW gives about 5604 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A rising channel mentioned in Wednesday's post seems to have broken down and now threatens to give about 5000. Also, a rising wedge can give about 5557 in case of a BD while two falling wedges give about 5715 and 5808 in case of a BO.

Nifty closed -ve on Wednesday and now indicates that lower levels are possible. The Harami Cross mentioned yesterday failed. Now, 5630-40 and 5725-35 are crucial zones and a daily close above/below them will give clear indication of the future trend. First sign of reversal and continuation of an uptrend would be if nifty opens above 5672 (preferably 5687) and closes above 5709 (preferably 5729).

2.         PCR down at 0.99 and VIX at 16.83. Pre-open high/low at 5666.35/5622.50 and close at 5663.50. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a slight gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5679NF, TARGET 5711.50 SL 5649.

4.         Target of first +ww met.

5.         Forgot to mention that 9.30 strategy target met.

6.         Target of second +ww met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a small gap (though nifty fut opened a bit down), made a lower low than that yesterday thereby giving hint of a bearish tone and remained in a horizontal channel of height 27 before suddenly breaking out. It made a higher high than that yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close as was indicated by the pre-open data. The targets of first two +WWs and the first falling wedge mentioned in the first post were met as also the target of 9.30 strategy trade. Today's candle, though large and green, doesn't give confidence about continuation of uptrend yet.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/10/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (10/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5697, 5684/81, 5655 and 5633. Resistances are at about 5709, 5715, 5723, 5728 and 5849. Four likely +WWs give about 5728, 5760/66 and 5788. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5693, 5650 and 5628 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A rising channel can give about 5557 in case of a BD below 5681. A falling wedge gives about 5808 in case of a BO while two rising wedges can give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Daily nifty candle on Tuesday is a Doji and that too an inside bar thereby giving a Harami Cross. Since this formation is in a downtrend, it indicates possible reversal to uptrend if nifty opens on Wednesday above 5709 and closes +ve, preferably above 5752 to begin with. For that nifty must take out previous highs of about 5715, 5729 and 5752. Hence, though the general short term trend is bearish, I feel nifty will try to go up on Wednesday again before reacting. Initially, 5684 and 5787 are two important levels to watch for judging the short term trend. A breakout above 5849 will ensure continuation of uptrend, which started in early Sept.

2.         PCR at 1.03 and VIX at 16.80.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5704NF, TARGET 5735 SL 5674.

4.         The above is a reverse trade after SL for first "sell" trade was hit around 9.45. Be careful of volatility which can trigger SL on either side. Luckily the present buy is close to SL.

5.         If SL is hit, target 5649NF sell above 5681 SL 5711.

6.         SL hit. Now 5649NF possible unless 5711 is taken out before that.

7.         Nifty opened gap down but could not rise much. It reacted later finally closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of two -WWs mentioned in the first post were met while the target of BD of first rising wedge was missed by a few points. However, SLs of 9.30 strategy trades were hit twice but the target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle gives signs of lower levels to come.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-09/10/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (09/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 563 and 5658. Resistances are at about 5679, 5686, 5735 and 5845. Three likely +WWs give about 5733 (once above 5701) and 5751/5787 (once above 5693). +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5654/5632/5519 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A falling channel gives about 5751 in case of a BO. Also, a falling wedge gives about 5808 in case of a BO while two rising wedges give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Nifty closed below 5691 thereby confirming the evening star on daily chart. Also, the bearishness of topping tail on weekly chart was confirmed. However, NS/NF closed above crucial levels of 5665/5696. Hence, though the general trend is bearish, I feel nifty will try to go up on Tuesday before reacting again, particularly because of having fallen so much in two days. A daily close above 5895 will only reverse the trend, which seems likely next week only.

2.         PCR at 1.02 and VIX at 17.17. Pre-open high/low at 5708.15/5663.15 and close at 5708.15. The 10tf candle is very small (45 high) but bullish and may indicate +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5736NF, TARGET 5775/89 SL 5706.

4.         HnS gives about 5729NF again. What a volatility!

5.         Went long again after HnS gave target.

6.         Nifty opened gap up as expected but failed to go above yesterday's high, made a higher low and closed slightly -ve but above yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was missed by 5. Also, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. However, when it reacted, it gave target of a HnS identified during the day. In the process, nifty almost filled the gap created today. The daily candle is thus a Doji and that too an inside bar, a Harami Cross in a downtrend.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-08/10/12

LEADER POST for Monday (08/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5739, 5714 and 5700. Resistances are at about 5751, 5759, 5831 and 5838. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Three likely -WWs give about 5728/5635/5521 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently).

Nifty made a new high and then collapsed by about 15% on Friday before recovering, thereby confirming bearishness indicated by the formation of previous week's star candle and Wednesday's Doji Star. The daily and weekly candles are hanging man. Even if one ignores the freak trade on Friday, the weekly candle is a topping tail. The trend is hence bearish unless nifty closes above 5895.

2.         PCR at 1.06 and VIX at 16.78. Pre-open high/low at 6044.80/5746.95 and close at 5751.85. The 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may indicate flat to -ve nifty after a flat open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5758NF, TARGET 5721/12 SL 5788.

4.         Target of first -ww met soon upon open.

5.         First target met. I suggest book your short near target and go long with strict SL of 5710NF.

6.         Second target met.

7.         SL for long triggered but I feel it may not go down much more today. RIL playing spoil sport.

8.         Nifty opened flat and quickly started descending, closing -ve and also below Friday's low as indicated by pre-open data. The target of first -ww mentioned in the first post was met so were both targets of 9.30 strategy trade.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/10/12

LEADER POST for Friday (05/10/12)

1.         The supports are at about 5785, 5775/72, 5755, 5746 and 5727. Resistances are at about 5791, 5799, 5815 and 5825. +WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now. Four likely -WWs give about 5722/5709/5700/5679 (-WWs with much lower levels are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag on daily chart give much higher levels unless killed below about 5400. A likely AT gives about 5855 in case of a BO while two likely rising wedges give about 5640/5557 in case of a BD.

Nifty made a new high and closed at a new high on Thursday and seems to have nullified the bearishness indicated by the -ve div on daily chart, previous weekly star candle and Wednesday's Doji Star unless Friday closes well below 5691. The -ve div visible on daily chart has also vanished. However, since most if not all reforms have been announced, I feel it is wise to hedge, if not short upon opening, to begin with and decide next course of action based on Friday's and next Monday's market.

2.         PCR at 1.09 and VIX at 16.44. Pre-open high/low at 5816.80/5757.90 and close at 5815. The 10tf candle is a hanging man and may indicate a -ve nifty after a slightly gap up open, accompanied with volatility.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL AT/ABOVE 5876NF TARGET 5811/5792 SL 5906. Note that first target is already met hence trade carefully.

4.         Second target also almost met.

5.         Considering today's "crash", all -ww targets of first post met as also those not mentioned.

6.         Nifty opened up with a gap as indicated in the first post but the high reached in first five min. was never crossed. Then an erroneous trade took nifty down by about 15% and then, though it recovered a great deal, it closed -ve and also below Thursday's close as indicated by pre-open data. The targets of all -WWs stated in the first post were met as also both the first target of 9.30 strategy. The daily candle is now a hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.