Daily_Nifty_VP's View-31/12/12

LEADER POST for Monday (31/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5888, 5883 and 5876 while resistances are at about 5914 and 5922. Other levels to watch are 5940 and 5965. Three likely +WWs give about 5915, 5939 and 5972 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5888 (once below 5922, which is yet to be reached), 5865 and 5859 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag gives higher level unless killed below 5895.

Nifty closed above 5900 and continues to remain in the range 5825-5965. Hence, it is not bullish yet and will become so only after closing above 5965. However, the daily candle is a Harami again while the weekly candle is an Inside Bar. It is, therefore, necessary for nifty to go above 5931 and also close above 5909 to give hints of bullishness. But, to begin with, it is very important for nifty to close above 5879 (5915NF) on Monday to give hope to bulls. If nifty first closes below 5879 and then below 5823, it may become bearish. Remember, 31st December is important because it gives monthly and yearly candles.

2.         PCR up at 1.0 and VIX at 14.52.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5984NF, TARGET 5934/15, SL 6014.

4.         I forgot to mention that target of first +ww was met in the opening 5 min only.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap (though nifty fut opened up with a gap), made a higher high and low than those on Friday before closing slightly +ve but slightly below Friday's close. However, nifty fut closed -ve. The total range was narrow at about 23. Only the target of first +ww of the first post was met. Daily candle is an inside bar to Thursday's mother candle.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-28/12/12

LEADER POST for Friday (28/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5872, 5867 and 5856 while resistances are at about 5880, 5896 and 5925. Other levels to watch are 5940 and 5965. Two likely +WWs give about 5936 and 5977 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5864 and 5837 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed below 5900 thereby remaining in the range 5850-5925. Hence, it is not bullish yet and will become so only after closing above 5965. Also, it should be noted that it is yet to break below Oct high of 5815. If nifty closes below 5823, it may become bearish. It will be very important for nifty to close above 5879 on 31st Dec to give hope to bulls.

2.         PCR slumps to 0.88 and VIX also down at 13.74. Pre-open high/low at 5941.15/5870.10 and close at 5887.15. This may indicate a +ve nifty if it remains above 5888 for an hour.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5952NF, TARGET 5977/95, SL 5922.

4.         NS has to go above 5906 first and then 5910 to march upwards.

5.         A -ww gives 5883 unless NS goes and remains above 5907.

6.         -ww target met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a gap, made a lower high and higher low than those yesterday before closing +ve (as was indicated by the pre-open data) and also above yesterday's close. The total range being only about 36 points, none of the targets were met. Importantly, nifty did not break the level of 5879 stated in the first post, though went very close to it. However, the daily candle is a Harami.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-27/12/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (27/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5901, 5895 and 5866 while resistances are at about 5917, 5947 and 5960. Other levels to watch are 5940 and 5965. Five likely +WWs give about 5918/22, 5946 and 5987/93 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two likely -WWs give about 5853 and 5850 (once below 5892) (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give about 5953 unless killed below 5884.

Nifty closed above 5900 thereby confirming bullish signal of Monday's Harami candle. However, it is not bullish yet and will become so only after closing above 5965. The short position is very heavy and if short covering begins, it will go up sharply. Also, it should be noted that it is yet to break below Oct high of 5815 and that the low of NF in Dec was 5838, which is same as the high of last expiry day. If nifty closes below 5823, it may become bearish. Nifty may be very choppy, Thursday being the expiry day. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.12 and VIX down at 14.10. Pre-open high/low at 6011.55/5905.60 and close at 5930.20. This may indicate a -ve nifty after a gap up opening, unless NS remains above 5930 for at least 15 min and preferably for one hour.

3.         Targets of first two +WWs met in the opening itself.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5910NF, TARGET 5881/68, SL 5940.

5.         Gap filled up.

6.         9.30 strategy target met.

7.         Nifty opened up with a gap but immediately reacted. It made a higher high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. The targets of first two +WWs were met as also that of 9.30 strategy trade. NS in this expiry managed to close above the close on last expiry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-26/12/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (26/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5846 and 5811 while resistances are at about 5858, 5906 and 5921. Other levels to watch are 5823, 5940 and 5965. Six likely +WWs give about 5878, 5886, 5916, 5951, 5968 and 5977 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed above 5850 but not above 5916 to confirm the likely morning star formed on Friday. However, the daily candle is a Harami, a likely bullish sign. It means nifty will at least remain lateral if it doesn't give a reversal. The short position is very heavy and if short covering begins, it will go up sharply. Also, it should be noted that it is yet to break below Oct high of 5815 and that the low of NF in Dec was 5838, which is same as the high of last expiry day. Nifty has to close above 5965 to become bullish. If nifty closes below 5823, it may become bearish. Nifty may be very choppy in the expiry week. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR 1.05 and VIX 14.49. Pre-open high/low at 5865.65/5844.05 and close at 5864.95. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5848.50NF, TARGET 5826/13, SL 5878.50.

4.         If SL is triggered, buy below 5893NF, target 5915, SL 5863.

5.         SL hit, buy triggered.

6.         Target of first +ww met

7.         Target of second +ww met.

8.         Target of third +ww met.

9.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, remained in a very narrow range of about 12 points till about 11 am before making an upmove. It made a higher high and low than those on Friday and Monday before closing +ve and also above Monday's close, as indicated by the pre-open data. In the process, it gave targets of first three +WWs of the first post. However, the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of the reverse trade was met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-24/12/12

LEADER POST for Monday (24/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5843, 5837 and 5794 while resistances are at about 5854, 5896, 5915 and 5927. Other levels to watch are 5940 and 5965. Five likely +WWs give about 5883, 5885, 5917, 5949 and 5968 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (other -WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge BO can give 5926 once above 5853.

Nifty closed below 5850 and gave a very bearish sentiment. However, the daily and weekly candles are likely morning stars. If Monday closes above 5916 with preferably a gap up open (better if above 5888), the morning star will be confirmed, which is a bullish sign. The short position is very heavy and if short covering begins, it will go up sharply. Also, it should be noted that it is yet to break below Oct high of 5815 and that the low of NF on Friday was 5838, which is same as the high of last expiry day.

Nifty has to close above 5965 to remain bullish. If nifty closes below 5823, it may become bearish. Nifty may be very choppy in the expiry week. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5871.20/5847.70 and close at 5869. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5850NF, TARGET 5827/14, SL 5880.

4.         If you shorted as per 9.30 strategy, lower SL to 5872.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, made a lower high and a higher low than those on Friday before closing ve but above Friday's close. None of the targets were met as the total range was about 26. Daily candle is a Harami.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-21/12/12

LEADER POST for Friday (21/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5903, 5869 and 5802 while resistances are at about 5929 and 5984. Other levels to watch are 5940 and 5965. Three likely +WWs give about 5962, 5966 and 5997 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5895, 5880 and 5823 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give about 5997 unless killed below 5868.

Nifty closed below 5925 again. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man, which can be bearish. Friday's candle must be green with preferably a gap up opening to defeat it. Also, nifty has to close above 5965 to become bullish again. If nifty opens down with a big gap, it can be tricky. If it closes below 5827, it may become bearish. Nifty may be very choppy as expiry approaches. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR still at 1.08 and VIX at 14.32. Pre-open high/low at 6056.45/5887.80 and close at 5888. 10tf candle is an inverted hammer and may actually indicate a +ve nifty after a gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5891NF, TARGET 5855/41, SL 5921.

4.         Targets of first two -WWs met.

5.         9.30 strategy trade target considered met.

6.         Nifty opened down with a gap and slid down, making a lower high and low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process, targets of first two -WWs of the first post and that of 9.30 strategy trade were met. Both the daily and weekly candles are like morning stars.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-20/12/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (20/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5921, 5907, 5858 and 5809 while resistances are at about 5934 and 5950. Other level to watch is 5965. Two likely +WWs give about 5952 and 5980 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5900, 5870 and 5852 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two bullish flags can give about 5966 and more unless killed below 5868.

Nifty finally closed above 5925 and gave a bullish sentiment. However, all is not well yet. The daily candle is an evening star, which can be bearish. Thursday's candle must be green with preferably a gap up opening to defeat it. Also, nifty has to close above 5965 to become bullish again. If nifty opens down with a big gap, it can be tricky. If it closes below 5827, it may become bearish. Nifty may be very choppy as expiry approaches. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR at up 1.08 and VIX up at 14.47. Better to trade safely. Pre-open high/low at 5983/5920.40 and close at 5934.45. This is the highest pre-open in a month. But the 10tf candle may indicate a flat to -ve nifty after a slight gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5959NF, TARGET 5985, SL 5929.

4.         If SL is hit, sell above 5932NF, target 5895/86, SL 5953.

5.         SL hit. Target of first -ww met.

6.         9.30 strategy reverse trade target met without giving chance of an entry.

7.         Nifty spot opened up with a small gap while nifty opened down. It couldn't make a higher high and quickly reacted. It then made a lower low than yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. It thus filled the gap created yesterday. The target of first -ww of the first post was met but the SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit. The target of reverse trade was met but without giving a chance of an entry.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-19/12/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (19/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5886, 5843, 5822, 5817 and 5799 while resistances are at about 5901 and 5917. Other levels to watch are 5925 and 5965. Four likely +WWs give about 5925, 5940, 5970 and 6010 (once above 5859) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -ww gives about 5873 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two bullish flags can give about 5944 and more unless killed below 5847.

Nifty closed above 5888 again and gave a bullish sentiment. However, it is not out of the woods yet. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man, which can be bearish. Nifty must close above 5925 first and then 5965 to become bullish again. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy for a few more days. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.07 and VIX down at 14.44. Pre-open high/low at 5917.30/5896.80 and close at 5917.30. The Marubuzo 10tf candle may indicate a +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         Target of first +ww met within two min of open.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5970NF, TARGET 5996/6010, SL 5940. BUT TREAT 5944 AS ANOTHER TIGHT SL ALSO.

5.         If SL is hit, sell above 5933NF, target 5906/5897, SL 5963.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, made a higher high and low than those yesterday and closed +ve as indicated by pre-open data and also above yesterday's close. However, nifty fut closed -ve. In the process, target of first +ww of the first post was met while that of second +ww was just missed by 0.6. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is an evening star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-18/12/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (18/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5855, 5850, 5839, 5835, 5827 and 5812 while resistances are at about 5864/73. Other levels to watch are 5925 and 5965. Three likely +WWs give about 5873, 5924 and 5990 (once above 5859) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed below 5888 again but above 5850 and hence lower levels are likely. However, daily candle is an inside bar as well as an inverted hammer, which is a likely reversal sign. Nifty must close above 5965 on weekly basis to become bullish again. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy for a few more days. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         Pre-open high/low at 5875.05/5845.85 and close at 5873.60. This may indicate a flat to +ve nifty after a small gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5886NF, TARGET 5860/46, SL 5916.

4.         (Post by LKL) Target achieved with low at 5838.05

5.         After 9.30 strategy trade target was met, SL was hit in one 5tf candle and target of reverse trade also met in the same candle but without giving a chance of an entry.

6.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, remained flat till RBI policy review and then tanked by about 50 points to make a lower low. However, it recovered sharply to make a higher high before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. In the process, targets of first +ww of the first post and the 9.30 strategy trade were met. Its recovery later was so strong that it went to trigger SL of the 9.30 strategy trade and give target of reverse trade also but without giving a chance of an entry for it. The daily candle is an imperfect hanging man.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 3 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-17/12/12

LEADER POST for Monday (17/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5860, 5851, 5837, 5823, 5814 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5884/89. Other levels to watch are 5925 and 5965. A likely +WW gives about 5922 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs give about 5874 and 5813 (imperfect) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bullish flag can give 5904 unless killed below 5857.

Nifty went up but again closed below 5888 and hence lower levels are likely as there is a -ve div on weekly chart. Nifty must close above 5965 on weekly basis to become bullish again. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy for a few more days. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.07 and VIX down at 14.23. Pre-open high/low at 5879.60/5751.45 and close at 5860.50. This may indicate a flat to +ve nifty after a small gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5882NF, TARGET 5858, SL 5912.

4.         Target of first -ww met in open itself.

5.         Nifty opened down with a small gap, made a lower high and higher low than those on Friday before closing almost flat but below Friday's close. The target of first -ww of the first post was met but that of the 9.30 strategy trade was not met, as total range was only about 28. The daily candle is an inside bar as well as an inverted hammer.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-14/12/12

LEADER POST for Friday (14/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5848, 5839 and 5797 while other level to watch is 5838. Resistances are at about 5853, 5880/84/87 and 5900. Other levels to watch are 5925 and 5965. Three likely +WWs give about 5867, 5900 (once above 5872) and 5960 (once above 5862) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two imperfect -WWs give about 5830 and 5806 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two bearish flags can give 5819 and 5800 unless killed above 5876.

Nifty went down and barely managed to close above 5850 and hence lower levels are likely. Nifty must cross above 5925 first and then 5965 to become bullish again. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy for a few more days. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR flat at 1.04 and VIX slightly up at 14.71. Pre-open high/low 5851.50/5810.65 and close at 5846.90. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5868NS, TARGET 5841/26, SL 5898.

4.         If SL is hit, buy below 5901NF, target 5929/37, SL 5871.

5.         Target of first +ww met.

6.         SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered and reverse trade activated. SL of 9.30 strategy was triggered and reverse trade activated.

7.         Nifty opened up with a slight gap, made a lower high and low than those yesterday before rising again to close +ve and also above yesterday's close. In the process, target of first +ww of the first post. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but target of reverse trade was not met.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-13/12/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (13/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5875 and 5785 while resistances are at about 5897, 5900, 5912, 5930 and 5980. Three likely +WWs give about 5902, 5930 and 5956 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5835 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag can give 5832 unless killed above 5930.

Nifty just managed to close at 5888 but once again failed to close above the psychological level of 5900. The daily candleis an inside bar, which is a likely reversal sign. But for that to happen, nifty must cross above 5925 first and then 5965. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy for a few more days. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR same at 1.04 and VIX down at 14.51. Pre-open high/low at 5900.90/5881.35 and close at 5900.35. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a slight gap up.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5916NF, TARGET 5893/75, SL 5946.

4.         9.30 strategy target met.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap and remained flat in a narrow range till afternoon, before suddenly tanking. It made a lower high and low than those yesterday. The target of first +ww of the first post was met in the open itself. Also met was target of 9.30 strategy trade.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-12/12/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (12/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5879, 5852 and 5790 while resistances are at about 5904, 5912, 5926 and 5980. Three likely +WWs give about 5910, 5945 and 5990 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A likely -WW gives about 5844 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A bearish flag gives much lower level unless killed above 5930.

Nifty closed above 5888 but failed to close above psychological level of 5900. The trend is still bearish unless nifty closes above 5965. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy for a few more days. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR down at 1.04 and VIX up at 14.67. Pre-open high/low at 5918/5878.75 and close at 5917.80. This may indicate a +ve nifty after a slight gap up open.

3.         Target of first +ww met.

4.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5955NF, TARGET 5985/98 SL 5925.

5.         If SL is hit, sell above 5927NF target 5896/91 SL 5957.

6.         A new -ww gives about 5892 which corresponds to 5925NF, the SL for 9.30 strategy. So I feel one may wait for a 5tf close below 5925 before closing long trade.

7.         -ww target considered met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but gradually started going down. It made a lower high and higher low than those yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close though nifty fut closed flat w.r.t. yesterday's close. The target of first +ww of the first post was met in the open itself as also the target of a -ww identified during the day. However, SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is an inside bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-11/12/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (11/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5895, 5887, 5874, 5850 and 5823 while resistances are at about 5913, 5975 and 5980. Two likely +WWs give about 5939 and 5947 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5878, 5866 and 5826 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

The daily Nifty candle is a hammer and can be a sign of reversal. It gets defeated only if nifty closes below 5888 for a couple of days. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR up at 1.08 and VIX down at 14.51. Pre-open high/low 5935.40/5897.25 and close at 5923.80. This may indicate an uncertain nifty after a small gap up opening.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5947NF, TARGET 6002/21 SL 5917.

4.         Targets of both +WWs met.

5.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

6.         5965NS is a good resistance.

7.         Target of first -ww met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a small gap, made a new high to give targets of both +WWs of the first post as also that of 9.30 strategy trade in the first 15 minutes but without giving a chance of an entry. However, it then tanked to fill up the gap and went down further to give target of first -ww of the first post. It thus made a higher high and lower low than those yesterday. Though it recovered late in the day, it could not close above the psychological level of 590

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-10/12/12

LEADER POST for Monday (10/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5893 and and 5886/83 while resistances are at about 5918, 5926, 5950 and 5965. A likely +ww gives about 5928 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5886, 5847 and 5841 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty made a new high again but Thursday's long legged Doji showed its bearish effect and nifty closed -ve. Also, weekly candle is like an evening star and can be bearish. It gets defeated only if nifty closes above 5950NS (Friday' high) for a couple of days. If nifty goes below 5862, one needs to be cautious but if it closes below 5838, it may be worrisome. Nifty may be very choppy. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR slightly down at 1.05 and VIX also down at 14.96. Pre-open NS opened around 5900, made a low of about5680 and closed at 5916. The 10tf candle is a long legged doji and may indicate a flat to +ve nifty after a slight gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5926NF, TARGET 5899/88, SL 5956.

4.         But the first 5f candle is a doji and hence be careful. Better to sell closer to SL than 5926.

5.         Nifty opened up with a small gap but nifty fut opened down with a slight gap. Also, nifty closed flat though slightly above Friday's close while nifty fut closed slightly -ve and also slightly below Friday's close. In the process, nifty made a lower high and higher low than those on Friday with total range being about 32. Nifty went within 2 points of meeting target of first -ww of the first post.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below. The first 35 min of chart is not available since website was not working.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-07/12/12

LEADER POST for Friday (07/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5893, 5887, 5868 and 5840 while resistances are at about 5939, 5943 and 5950. The next important level is 5945. A likely +ww gives about 5960 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5927, 5918 and 5888 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A big bullish flag gives much higher levels unless killed below about 5888.

Nifty closed at a new high again. By opening gap up and closing +ve, it also defeated the Evening Doji Star formed on Wednesday. However, Thursday's candle is a long legged Doji which is considered "top caling" or a bearish sign and gets defeated only if nifty closes above 5943NS (Thursday' high) for a couple of days. If nifty goes below 5844, one needs to be cautious but if it closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. I feel Nifty is now at a make or break level and hence it may be very choppy as it was on Thursday. Hence trade with strict SLs.

2.         PCR flat at 1.07 and VIX down at 15.24. Pre-open high/low at 5938.80/5850.60 and close at 5934. The 10tf candle is also a long legged doji and may indicate flat to -ve nifty after a slight gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5971NF, TARGET 5934/16, SL 6001.

4.         Target of first -ww met while that of second -ww almost met.

5.         A new -ww gives 5920.

6.         It appears like distribution going on unless it goes well past today's high later.

7.         -ww target above met.

8.         Second -ww target met.

9.         Target of 9.30 strategy met.

10.       Target of third -ww met.

11.       Nifty opened up with a slight gap and made a new high since 10 Jan '11 but quickly reacted to make a higher low than yesterday before closing -ve and also below yesterday's close. In the process targets of all the three -WWs and the 9.30 strategy trade were met. Also met was target of a -ww identified during the day.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-06/12/12

LEADER POST for Thursday (06/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5891, 5883 and 5811 while resistances are at about 5907, 5915 and 5930. The next important level is 5945. A likely +ww gives about 5930 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5890 (once below 5930, which is yet to be reached), 5867 and 5844 (once below 5876) (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed at a new high. However, the daily candle is an Evening Doji Star, which is a bearish sign and gets defeated only if nifty preferably opens gap up and closes strongly +ve. If nifty goes below 5854, one needs to be cautious but if it closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. I feel it may react a bit to consolidate and will be a "buy on dips" story. Much higher levels are expected.

2.         PCR flat at 1.07 and VIX up at 16.62. Pre-open high/low at 5940.50/5900.50 and close at 5926.30. This may indicate a flat to -ve nifty after gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5974NF, TARGET 5908/03, SL 6004.

4.         Target already met in first 10 min without giving chance of entry and an entry later is also doubtful.

5.         Targets of first two -WWs met while targets of +ww and third -ww almost met.

6.         Target of third -ww met.

7.         Target of +ww also met.

8.         Nifty opened up with a gap at a new high but tanked immediately, making a lower low than yesterday. In the process, target of 9.30 strategy trade was met in the first 10 min without giving chance of an entry. Also met were targets of all the three -WWs. However, in late afternoon, it rallied sharply to make a higher high (new high again) thereby giving target of +ww. It also closed slightly +ve and also above yesterday's close. The daily candle is a long legged Doji.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-05/12/12

LEADER POST for Wednesday (05/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5861 and 5850 while resistances are at about 5896, 5905 and 5920. The next important level is 5945. A likely +ww gives about 5905 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four likely -WWs give about 5850, 5840, 5835 and 5808 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently).

Nifty closed +ve but did not make a new high. The daily candle is an Insider Bar, which can be bearish unless nifty goes and remains above 5900. If nifty goes below 5854, one needs to be cautious but if it closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. I feel it may react a bit to consolidate and will be a "buy on dips" story. Much higher levels are expected.

2.         PCR at 1.07 and VIX at 15.91. Pre-open high/low at 5906.60/5662.40 and close at 5906.60. This the largest pre-open candle since 5th Nov. The 10tf candle is a hammer and may indicate a -ve nifty after a gap up open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, BUY BELOW 5965NF, TARGET 5990/6007 SL 5935.

4.         If SL is hit, SELL ABOVE 5927NF, TARGET 5900/5890, SL 5957.

5.         +ww target met in the open itself.

6.         SL hit.

7.         Nifty opened up with a gap, made a higher high (also a new high) and low than those yesterday and closed at a new high. However, it closed -ve as indicated by the pre-open data though above yesterday's close. The target of +ww was met in the open itself. However, as on earlier days, the SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but target of reverse trade was not met. The daily candle is an evening doji star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-04/12/12

LEADER POST for Tuesday (04/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5851 and 5757 while resistance is at about 5913. The next important level is 5945. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5837, 5827 and 5814 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A rising wedge seems to have broken down and can give about 5630.

Nifty once again made a new high but could not close at one. The daily candle is a spinning top while the daily candle of nifty fut is an imperfect evening doji star and both signs are bearish. Only a gap up opening with a +ve closing will defeat it. Both daily and weekly charts still show -ve divergence. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. I feel it may react a bit to consolidate and will be a "buy on dips" story. Much higher levels are expected.

2.         PCR at 1.10 and VIX at 15.62. Pre-open high/low at 5870.95/5859NS and close at 5866.80. This may indicate a flat nifty after a slight gap down open.

3.         AS PER 9.30 STRATEGY, SELL ABOVE 5880NF, TARGET 5856/43, SL 5910.

4.         If SL is hit, BUY BELOW 5921NF, TARGET 5945/57, SL 5891.

5.         Nifty opened down with slight gap but made a higher low and a lower high than those yesterday before closing +ve and also above yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy trade was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met. The total range was only about 35. Today's candle is an Inside Bar.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.

 

Daily_Nifty_VP's View-03/12/12

LEADER POST for Monday (03/12/12)

1.         Supports are at about 5860, 5827 and 5726 while resistances are at about 5890, 5935 and 5950. (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three likely -WWs give about 5833 (once below 5861), 5851 and 5845 (other -WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A rising wedge BD can give about 5630.

Nifty once again closed at a new high and the daily candle is again a Marubuzo, thereby forming three white soldiers, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. However, -ve div is seen on both daily and weekly charts and the nifty fut daily candle is not a Marubuzo thereby forming a possible Advance Block (Platter) pattern, indicating that bulls may be tiring out. If nifty closes below 5827, it may be worrisome. I feel it may react a bit to consolidate and will be a "buy on dips" story. Much higher levels are expected.

2.         BUY below 5926 NF TARGET 5959 SL 5896.

3.         If SL is hit, SELL above 5905 NF Target 5871 SL 5935.

4.         (post by LLK) With low of 5892, SL having hit, sell is being attempted.

5.         Nifty opened up with a mild gap, made a new high (higher high and low) but then reacted to close mildly -ve and also below Friday's close. However, nifty fut closed slightly above yesterday's close. The SL of 9.30 strategy was hit but the target of reverse trade was not met. The total range was about 45. The daily candle is a spinning top. The daily candle of NF is also an imperfect evening doji star.

The intraday chart of nifty spot values with 5 min candles is shown below.